Regarding the following quote from the discussion I would say that since one of the main steering features for the future track relies upon a low coming down from Canada then I would give much weight to the Canadian's evaluation of the current situation... more than maybe at other times.
Agree also that the low isn't going to dig much and am worried about the ridge rebuilding.
"THE CANADIAN MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EVEN WESTWARD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES LIE IN HOW MUCH EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OCCURS NORTH OF FRANCES IN 36-72 HOURS AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DIGS SOUTHWARD. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODEL SHOW MORE EROSION OF THE RIDGE...WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS LIFT OUT THE UPPER-LOW MORE QUICKLY...WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 72 HOURS. THE PAST 24 HOUR TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LOW HAS PROBABLY PUSHED ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS IT CAN...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE GFS-GFDL-CANADIAN SCENARIO OF A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BY 96 HOURS"
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