Looks like I was a bit too hasty myself with the WNW track; Frances's track has been consistently left of the forecast. If that bias continues, it may clip the NE Antilles in a few days.
Frances has a lot going for it on its current track. There are warm SST anomalies of about 0.5 C along its forecast path, and north of the Antilles the SSTs will be especially favorable, 29 C <. Its rather small size--which seems to be typical of storms this year--is another plus, as it allows for rapid changes in intensity (up *or* down, it should be noted). So for now, I have to agree with the Floyd or Isabel analogue crowd, though I'm still not going so far as to expect landfall on the East Coast at this stage of the game.
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