I wouldn't be so quick to write this one off. JB just did a midday missive on this system...to paraphrase...
Current upward pulse of convection may be for real, and that is what is necessary to begin development. Some evidence a center may start to organize 50 miles east of Charleston. We won't know until tonight, because the convection must get going and stay organized. IF it does so, the outflow forecast is excellent, and it should stay over the warm water and continue to strengthen...At the very least, the potential for torrential rains exists for NC and the rest of the East Coast, with the additional potential for a strike from Frances the following weekend.
JB's been wrong more than he's been right this year, but when he's been right, he's been dead on. I think anyone with interests in the Carolinas, especially the OB, had better keep an eye on this one. First Alex, then Charley, possibly another tropical (subtropical) storm, then possibly Frances...I was actually planning an Outer Banks vacation in September...I hope it's still there.
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 39228
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center