I wouldn't be so quick to write this one off. JB just did a midday missive on this system...to paraphrase...
Current upward pulse of convection may be for real, and that is what is necessary to begin development. Some evidence a center may start to organize 50 miles east of Charleston. We won't know until tonight, because the convection must get going and stay organized. IF it does so, the outflow forecast is excellent, and it should stay over the warm water and continue to strengthen...At the very least, the potential for torrential rains exists for NC and the rest of the East Coast, with the additional potential for a strike from Frances the following weekend.
JB's been wrong more than he's been right this year, but when he's been right, he's been dead on. I think anyone with interests in the Carolinas, especially the OB, had better keep an eye on this one. First Alex, then Charley, possibly another tropical (subtropical) storm, then possibly Frances...I was actually planning an Outer Banks vacation in September...I hope it's still there.
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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