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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
what, me worry?
      Thu Aug 26 2004 08:01 PM

worried is a bit of a stretch on this end. i've got reason to believe the picture we're currently seeing is going to get a lot more complicated. there is threat potential.. but the pieces haven't come together yet, and we need a few more of the big ones before the worry starts here.
i'm nowhere near 100% on what's happening just off the coast in my home state. that could easily be a weak, clueless low, or get organized and spin up into something bothersome over the weekend. right now i'm favoring the latter, but not confident in any sense. if either the low southeast of charleston or the low south of bermuda develop, it will greatly confuse the picture upstream of frances.. the ridge in the western atlantic will not be a solid driving force but frayed at the edges.
frances of course has major longtracker written into it's future, but that's nothing special per se.. it is forecast to track close to the islands at a westward trajectory.. and many of those threaten the east coast when they do that.. but by no means do all. gfs is the crystal ball we gaze into for answers, and it still alternately recurves it and drives it straight across florida.. or takes it into the carolinas. until it stops changing its mind every run we won't have the foggiest, other than just a deepening storm with threat as a caption. assuming an inertial path off the forecast track, the storm will be near the east coast around september 4th.. so until about monday or tuesday we won't be close enough in for the models to start drawing a convincing picture. for this weekend, watch and wait... unless you're in the virgin islands and the storm makes a habit of staying left of the forecast track.
just to be presumptive, yes, there is a good chance gaston pops up somewhere prior to the closure of august. just to add fuel to the fire, soi staying negative almost all august has brought some significant warming to the western pacific, and the atmosphere should be transitioning to a weak el nino as autumn sets in. the breakneck pace we've set in august may be clipped off sometime in october.
HF 0004z27august

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Frances deepening, closer concerns HanKFranK Thu Aug 26 2004 08:01 PM
. * * Station 41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA Cocoa Beach   Fri Aug 27 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Station TYBG1 - U.S. Navy Tower R8 Cocoa Beach   Fri Aug 27 2004 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Station TYBG1 - U.S. Navy Tower R8 Keith234   Fri Aug 27 2004 02:49 PM
. * * NHC Statement on TD7 Hurricane   Fri Aug 27 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Station TYBG1 - U.S. Navy Tower R8 TROY   Fri Aug 27 2004 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Station TYBG1 - U.S. Navy Tower R8 Jamiewx   Fri Aug 27 2004 02:48 PM
. * * RECON (It's about time too...) LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Frances deepening, closer concerns LoisCane   Thu Aug 26 2004 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Frances deepening, closer concerns Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 09:07 PM
. * * Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS Frank P   Thu Aug 26 2004 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS BevMott   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS recmod   Fri Aug 27 2004 06:33 AM
. * * Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:28 AM
. * * Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS rmbjoe1954   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS Ed in Va   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS rmbjoe1954   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS Keith234   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:17 AM
. * * Cat II Frances LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:37 AM
. * * Cat III Frances? rmbjoe1954   Fri Aug 27 2004 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Cat III Frances? LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Cat III Frances? StormLover   Fri Aug 27 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Northward Wobble! LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Northward Wobble! joepub1   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Northward Wobble! Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:17 PM
. * * 97L Keith234   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Northward Wobble! Brad   Fri Aug 27 2004 12:33 PM
. * * South Carolina... Steve   Fri Aug 27 2004 12:46 PM
. * * JB Midday Missive LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 12:51 PM
. * * Re: JB Midday Missive SC Bill   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:38 PM
. * * Re: JB Midday Missive Kal   Fri Aug 27 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: JB Midday Missive SirCane   Fri Aug 27 2004 03:00 PM
. * * Frances goes MAJOR LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Frances goes MAJOR Kevin   Fri Aug 27 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Re:Question about what I see DMFischer   Fri Aug 27 2004 03:43 PM
. * * Re:Question about what I see Keith234   Fri Aug 27 2004 04:24 PM
. * * TD7 Advisory 1 LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: TD7 Advisory 1 James88   Fri Aug 27 2004 04:47 PM
. * * Probabilities of a SC impact? Mooshie   Tue Aug 31 2004 06:09 PM
. * * Re: TD7 ....models? LoisCane   Fri Aug 27 2004 06:36 PM
. * * Re: TD7 ....models? LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 06:46 PM
. * * TD7 Forecast Track LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 04:50 PM
. * * Re: TD7 Forecast Track Keith234   Fri Aug 27 2004 06:00 PM
. * * Frances' future LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Frances' future Keith234   Fri Aug 27 2004 06:56 PM
. * * Hurricane Charley Chrisras   Fri Aug 27 2004 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley meto   Fri Aug 27 2004 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley meto   Fri Aug 27 2004 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley scott   Fri Aug 27 2004 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Maitland, FL   Fri Aug 27 2004 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley GuppieGrouper   Fri Aug 27 2004 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley WeatherNLU   Fri Aug 27 2004 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Maitland, FL   Fri Aug 27 2004 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Maitland, FL   Fri Aug 27 2004 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances meto   Fri Aug 27 2004 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Off topic-slightly danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 27 2004 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Off topic-slightly GuppieGrouper   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Hermine danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Hermine GuppieGrouper   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:12 PM
. * * Re: Hermine HCW   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:52 PM
. * * NEW THREAD! LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:57 PM
. * * Re: NEW THREAD! HCW   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:01 PM
. * * 2345 T#s LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 08:39 PM
. * * Re: 2345 T#s meto   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:01 PM
. * * Re: TD7 Forecast Track James88   Fri Aug 27 2004 04:57 PM
. * * Monster Hurricane Chrisras   Fri Aug 27 2004 05:08 PM
. * * Re: Monster Hurricane rmbjoe1954   Fri Aug 27 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Monster Hurricane LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Monster Hurricane DMFischer   Fri Aug 27 2004 05:29 PM
. * * Frances News Hype Keith234   Fri Aug 27 2004 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Frances News Hype LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Frances News Hype Hardcore   Fri Aug 27 2004 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Monster Hurricane StormLover   Fri Aug 27 2004 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Monster Hurricane 52255225   Fri Aug 27 2004 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Monster Hurricane Rich B   Fri Aug 27 2004 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Monster Hurricane Steve   Fri Aug 27 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re:Question about what I see RevUp   Fri Aug 27 2004 04:36 PM
. * * Re:Question about what I see Maitland   Fri Aug 27 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Frances goes MAJOR LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 03:38 PM
. * * Re: JB Midday Missive SC Bill   Fri Aug 27 2004 02:46 PM
. * * Re: JB Midday Missive Steve   Fri Aug 27 2004 02:19 PM
. * * Re: JB Midday Missive rmbjoe1954   Fri Aug 27 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re: JB Midday Missive scottsvb55   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:52 PM
. * * Re: JB Midday Missive scottsvb1   Fri Aug 27 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Re: JB Midday Missive Ed in Va   Fri Aug 27 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: JB Midday Missive ticka1   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:17 PM
. * * Re: JB Midday Missive redbird   Sun Aug 29 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Re: JB Midday Missive Keith234   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:08 PM
. * * Re: JB Midday Missive Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:04 PM
. * * Re: JB Midday Missive Storm Cooper   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Northward Wobble! rmbjoe1954   Fri Aug 27 2004 12:29 PM
. * * Gaston? Steve   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Gaston? James88   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Gaston? LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Gaston? SC Bill   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Gaston? Keith234   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:54 AM
. * * Compact systems Clark   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Gaston? Keith234   Fri Aug 27 2004 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Gaston? LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:31 AM
. * * HOMEGROWN TROUBLE summercyclone   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:45 AM
. * * Re: HOMEGROWN TROUBLE Hardcore   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Gaston? Steve   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:29 AM
. * * Gaston and Hermine? James88   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 27 2004 07:31 AM
. * * Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS LONNY307   Fri Aug 27 2004 08:26 AM
. * * Re: A98E danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 27 2004 08:45 AM
. * * Re: A98E Clark   Fri Aug 27 2004 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS Matt033   Fri Aug 27 2004 07:22 AM
. * * Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS meto   Thu Aug 26 2004 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS h2ocean   Thu Aug 26 2004 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Frances deepening, closer concerns WeatherNLU   Thu Aug 26 2004 06:28 PM
. * * Can I breath easy? Cycloneye   Thu Aug 26 2004 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Can I breath easy? LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Can I breath easy? LoisCane   Thu Aug 26 2004 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Can I breath easy? LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 09:42 PM
. * * who is roberta? & i think ridge is building in as we speak LoisCane   Thu Aug 26 2004 10:39 PM
. * * Re:A More W Component? javlin   Thu Aug 26 2004 11:19 PM
. * * Re:A More W Component? Steve   Fri Aug 27 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Frances in Florida? FSU GRAD   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:07 AM
. * * Re: Frances in Florida? Steve   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:13 AM
. * * Re: Frances in Florida? EriktheFled   Fri Aug 27 2004 02:29 AM
. * * Re: Frances in Florida? James88   Fri Aug 27 2004 03:09 AM
. * * Re: Frances in Florida? Matt033   Fri Aug 27 2004 03:29 AM
. * * Re:5AM Discussion danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 27 2004 05:16 AM
. * * Re:5AM Discussion LadyStorm   Fri Aug 27 2004 06:11 AM
. * * Re:5AM Discussion James88   Fri Aug 27 2004 06:18 AM
. * * Re: Off Current Topic danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 27 2004 06:31 AM
. * * Very Quick...very EARLY post LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 05:54 AM
. * * Re: Frances in Florida? Clark   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Frances in Florida? Steve   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:27 AM
. * * Re:A More W Component? Clark   Fri Aug 27 2004 01:01 AM
. * * when the moderators.... rickonboat   Thu Aug 26 2004 07:25 PM
. * * what, me worry? HanKFranK   Thu Aug 26 2004 08:01 PM
. * * Re: what, me worry? Clark   Thu Aug 26 2004 08:44 PM
. * * Re: what, me worry? GuppieGrouper   Thu Aug 26 2004 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Can I breath easy? ticka1   Thu Aug 26 2004 07:05 PM
. * * wonder what the insurance companies are thinking rickonboat   Thu Aug 26 2004 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Frances deepening, closer concerns Rabbit   Thu Aug 26 2004 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Frances deepening, closer concerns Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 06:04 PM

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