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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
saturday AM situation
      Sat Aug 28 2004 08:43 AM

frances chugging along unchanged from last night. guidance still taking the storm into/near the bahamas late in the forecast period.. insinuating that it will strike the east coast in a week. my take unchanged.. storm will go north of the caribbean islands, strike the east coast on or about saturday, september 4th.. quite possibly in the cat3-4 range.
going to fine tune what i said about td7 and 98L last night... and add two other suspect areas for next week. idea about td7/98L binary action may not be as pronounced as i was reckoning last night.. still calling for it, but the ridge should shift east before they get anything real interesting going. td 7 is deepening and should begin to move west today. may intensify quite a bit before it reaches the coast, as per the level of organization it has attained. didn't move as much as i was reckoning last night, so it shouldn't quite get the landfall position i progged just eight hours ago.. somewhere on the sc coast though. should landfall at a high angle late sunday.. perhaps early am monday.. thinking around fripp/edisto at this point. may be a minimal hurricane, but probably a high end tropical storm. should be moving erratically at that point as it interacts with the tropical system passing by to the northeast. based on the forecast pattern it may get 'stuck' instead of carried out to sea.. though models trending less in that direction now.
98L i'm going with development.. later today. no dvorak #s yet.. should change soon. think tropical storm potential.. probably low to mid range... at least through monday. unless more of the ridge periphery sticks than forecast, it should break through and clear hatteras by a couple hundred miles. still going with this as the sacraficial recurvature lamb.
new area of interest appearing in some modeling in the northern gulf for mid week, upcoming. the shortwave energy currently over the southern plains should have a significant piece left behind (trough splitting is the name of the game in this pattern). in other words, there may be another spin-up system near the louisiana coast in early september.. models vary on how far south this feature will be released.. if it gets a decent distance offshore development chances will be present more than if it is hanging over the delta.
the surface flow that helped frances close off a few days ago continues in a weaker form.. wave energy is out of sync behind the system, but global models are consistently developing at least one new tropical cyclone out there during the upcoming week. hard to ID the perp.. as things are so out of whack.. both the spread system near 28w and the one emerging today are potential developers down the line. it's longtracker season, so we should get a few more out of there during the coming weeks.
put a forecast challenge up at oh-dark-thirty last night in the storm forum. big players out there right now, head on over and see if you can reason out their moves.
HF 1243z28august

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up MikeCAdministrator Sat Aug 28 2004 08:43 AM
. * * Recon on Gaston Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Recon on Gaston Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Recon on Gaston RevUp   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Frances Models Maitland   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:18 PM
. * * Getting Ready for Frances WXMAN RICHIE   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Getting Ready for Frances GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Getting Ready for Frances k___g   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:21 PM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Reality Check, Lets not jump the gun... Cocoa Beach   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up joepub1   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up FlaRebel   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:04 PM
. * * from the NWS Melbourne Discussion at 3pm Jamiewx   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up ShaggyDude   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:20 PM
. * * Frances T Number recmod   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Gaston nearing hurricane strength Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength SC Bill   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength StormLover   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength Hurric   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:44 PM
. * * Officially a CAT IV LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Hurric   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Robert   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:35 PM
. * * New Orleans area forcast.... long term Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans area forcast.... long term Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:37 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans area forcast.... long term meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:51 PM
. * * The Sun Sets on Frances Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:14 PM
. * * Re: The Sun Sets on Frances GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:36 PM
. * * Re: The Sun Sets on Frances Steve   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:47 PM
. * * Gaston and Frances zacros   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Frances is a Monster Maitland, FL   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Frances is a Monster Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Keith234   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:40 PM
. * * eyewall rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:23 PM
. * * Re: eyewall Cocoa Beach   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: eyewall ShaggyDude   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Officially a CAT IV Cocoa Beach   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:56 PM
. * * HOLY 5H!+! LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: HOLY 5H!+! Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:41 PM
. * * Re: HOLY 5H!+! Clark   Sat Aug 28 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Cat 4 MikeG   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Cat 4 meto   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength HCW   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength LI Phil   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:14 PM
. * * cat 5's are rare.....this is a big August rickonboat   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Frances Cat. 4 Maitland, FL   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Frances T Number recmod   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up ticka1   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Maitland, FL   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Gaston LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Golly.. RedingtonBeachGuy   Sat Aug 28 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. Floridacane   Sat Aug 28 2004 12:50 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:09 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. jlauderdal   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:19 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:34 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:12 AM
. * * Re: 0615z Satellite Obs danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 03:03 AM
. * * So far...Frances is on track rmbjoe1954   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:09 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Hurric   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:09 AM
. * * saturday AM situation HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:43 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track LadyStorm   Sat Aug 28 2004 06:14 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:24 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Kevin   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:46 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:09 AM
. * * observations? RedingtonBeachGuy   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: observations? SC Bill   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:55 AM
. * * Re: observations? Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:35 AM
. * * Re: observations? HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:30 AM
. * * 9:30 update HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:34 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:37 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:41 AM
. * * Floyd vs. Frances VADavid   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:46 AM
. * * Interesting 00 GFS model run Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:59 AM
. * * NWS S FL early morning discussion references the GFS Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run HCW   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Southern4sure   Sat Aug 28 2004 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Frank P   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run joepub1   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:52 AM
. * * still a TD at 11? Rabbit   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Floyd vs. Frances Ricreig   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Floyd vs. Frances Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:56 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 28 2004 09:19 AM
. * * Re: So far...Frances is on track Steve   Sat Aug 28 2004 08:44 AM
. * * TD 7 mikeG   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:09 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 mikeG   Sat Aug 28 2004 02:48 AM
. * * Re: Golly.. HanKFranK   Sat Aug 28 2004 12:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up LI Phil   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up caneman   Fri Aug 27 2004 09:36 PM
. * * Re: Frances HuRRi   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Frances edwinberrios   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Frances Frank P   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Frances JohnW   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:58 PM
. * * threats HanKFranK   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:25 PM
. * * Re: threats scottsvb1   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:52 PM
. * * Re: threats meto   Fri Aug 27 2004 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Frances HuRR   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Frances VADavid   Fri Aug 27 2004 10:20 PM

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