Quote: What gives ? The discussions since last night say that forecast track has not changed. Where do they get this North Shift ?
I was hoping you could tell me I am on the NHC e-mail list for storm bulletins and I didn't see anything mentioning this. I did a refresh on the NRL site a couple of times about 7am and about 7:30-7:45, another refresh gave me the URL depicting the changes in the track. So far, I've seen no discussion anywhere mentioning this. I checked the NHC models....same: They changed since the last I looked an hour or two ago. Something is afoot, but I'm not sure recon will help much as it is 'current status' info on the storm itself more than a predicition device in itself. Last night, there was a front approaching Birmingham Ala, moving E-SE....sould this be, coupled with the other Tropical stuff like Gaston, causing a weakness in the ridge that Frances is 'seeing' and reacting to? I hope so because it could mean fish food rather than disaster for much of Florida already reeling from Charley and could even spare the US EC who have also had their fill of tropical activity. There is still time for the ridge to 'fix' itself and push Frances back west across Florida, but there is now hope is imore Floyd-like with a chance to miss the US entirely. Let's pray for this scenereo because I don't want, nor wish, a Cat 1V-V storm on *anyone*!
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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