Did you happen to read any of the posts on S2K last night? One of the mets who posts there said that NHC has a lot of internal guidance...apparently that (internal) guidance showed a consensus track towards the Carolinas. I have a MAJOR beef with the way Jarvinen handled the discussions if the internal models were indeed showing a curve towards the north during the 4-5 day range. He offered NO synoptic reasoning whatsoever to justify a more nw track at the end of the period. Therefore I'm really not buying the NHC track at this time.
To boot, the UKMET, GFS, and ECMWF all show a South Florida landfall. At some point, all of these models have shown some type of success in forecasting hurricane paths.
Time to refute NHC 4-5 day position even more...Frances is clearly moving westerly this morning. If this does indeed cross the 20N-60W Hebert Box, then the threat to Florida is probably greatly increased. Ironically enough, NHC's forecast track shows Frances narrowly missing this box. I'm thinking that this poses more of a threat to the Leewards than expected, but they should still escape the full effects.
Longer range, just how much Florida is threatened/possibly mauled will depend greatly on where the next amplification is. By late next week, we should definitely see a trough in the midwest region. How strong the high is along with Frances' location would determine exactly where landfall would occur. I can see the storm curving NW at some point, possibly cutting through a decent part of the state after making landfall. It could possibly reach the Gulf, but I don't see a threat to the northern Gulf at this time. I could be wrong though.
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