For those in the east central Florida area, Melbourne NWS discussion this afternoon has an interesting long range portion. THU-SUN...FORECAST IS VERY HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND SPEED OF VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES. LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK CONTINUES TO BRING FRANCES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN FL LABOR DAY WEEKEND. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS EXACT FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THE AVG TRACK ERROR FOR DAY 5 IS 325 NAUTICAL MILES. NONETHELESS...AS EXPECTED FRANCES HAS BENT MORE TO THE WEST TODAY DUE TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF IT. THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STEER FRANCES W/NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEN POSSIBLY WEAKEN WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE N/NW MOTION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE UPPER RIDGING ERODES...IT COULD TURN FRANCES TO OUR EAST OR BRING IT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BREVARD COUNTY AS THE 12Z UKMET AND GFS DO. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW OFFICAL FORECAST WHICH BRINGS FRANCES ONSHORE NEAR JUPITER INLET. PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FL SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
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