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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL
Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas
      Tue Aug 31 2004 10:10 PM

The 11PM Advisory out and it shifts the track slightly left, GFL is what the hurricane center is favoring now. One disturbing trend is that the models slow the forward speed of the storm as it approaches the Florida coastline. However, the more southerly and Carolina tracks are still not ruled out, this time tomorrow evening we should have a better handle, that is if models and other aspects behave. Still more to come later.


This graphic (Thanks Skeetobite) represents the possible wind swath of Hurricane Force winds based on the current wind profile and current track over Central Florida as of 11PM Tuesday. The main point of this is to show that Frances is a larger system than Charley was (as far as diameter and windfield) and if the track holds could cause a wider area to see hurricane force winds.

My best guestimate for landfall as of now is the range between just south of West Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral. This could change.

Frances has trended back left with the models and we'll be updating more later tonight.



New graphic Model plots animated over time to help see trends. Source images are from the South Florida Water managmenet District webpage.

Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tomorrow night at 8PM EST.

Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time (new as of 3:30PM today)
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)



General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 31 2004 10:10 PM
. * * Stair stepping back west? Bloodstar   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:55 AM
. * * Re: eyewall replacement? mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:58 AM
. * * Forecast discussion -- Frances Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:06 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:18 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances jlauderdal   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:22 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:29 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances Bloodstar   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:48 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Headings danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:45 AM
. * * interesting john03   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:42 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:26 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:08 AM
. * * Re: recon Steve   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:03 AM
. * * Hebert's box/square misinformation Brad   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation Brad   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:00 AM
. * * Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... joepub1   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... joepub1   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... N. Brevard   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:52 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Bev   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... joepub1   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Pam in Vero   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:05 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... cyclone_head   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:42 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:05 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:07 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:22 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Models john03   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... javlin   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... WeatherNLU   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... rjp   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation AgentB   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation DroopGB31   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas LI Phil   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas LI Phil   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas HurriK   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:20 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances javlin   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:32 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances BillD   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:41 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances DroopGB31   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances ShaggyDude   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:45 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances BillD   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:53 PM
. * * 11pm Stewart Discussion Justin in Miami   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans sullynole   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans DroopGB31   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans DroopGB31   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:09 PM
. * * Watches / Warnings Justin in Miami   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans scottsvb1   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans scottsvb1   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans wxman007   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans SirCane   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances wxman007   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Stacey's Fan Club... LI Phil   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Stacey's Fan Club... ShaggyDude   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:56 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances wxman007   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:40 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances ShaggyDude   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:41 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances BillD   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances ShaggyDude   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:47 PM

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