Someone - I think wxmanrichie(sp?) - wrote: "My take - Just remember that 90% of all major hurricanes that go through Hebert's box hit Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach counties down the road as major hurricanes."
Again, I want to dispel incorrect information regarding Hebert's box/square. I am confident that the above statement regarding the 90% figure is incorrect. As far as I know, the 1928 hurricane and David are major hurricanes that hit S. Fla. after traveling through the box, but I'm not sure if they were even major hurricanes when they went through the box. (The above-quoted language suggests that being cat 3+ while in the box is one of the criteria -- not sure if that was intentional.) Andrew was outside the box, although close to it, and was not a major hurricane (was it a hurricane at all?) at the time.
I don't know of any others that have passed through the box and struck South Florida as majors. So that's 2 that fit the criteria, 3 if you count Andrew; it's not even mathematically possible to come up with a number of "misses" that would make that 90% figure correct.
And there's a reason for that: it isn't correct. Many storms pass through the box without affecting South Florida. Some of those storms pass through the box as major hurricanes.
Passing through the box does correlate to a higher chance of a South Florida hit, and a hit by a major (which makes sense based on location - north of the islands but not too far north, SE of S. Fla., etc.), but it's not a 90% guarantee or anything close to it.
I think Hebert's box/square has become the stuff of urban legend.
it is misinformation (probably not deliberate). should read something like 90% of majors that hit the three SE florida counties from the atlantic side went through the box, not the converse. of course half that go through the box probably miss the east coast, and the remainder hit elsewhere. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 31 2004 11:53 PM)