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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Brad
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Hebert's box/square misinformation
      Tue Aug 31 2004 11:35 PM

Someone - I think wxmanrichie(sp?) - wrote: "My take - Just remember that 90% of all major hurricanes that go through Hebert's box hit Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach counties down the road as major hurricanes."

Again, I want to dispel incorrect information regarding Hebert's box/square. I am confident that the above statement regarding the 90% figure is incorrect. As far as I know, the 1928 hurricane and David are major hurricanes that hit S. Fla. after traveling through the box, but I'm not sure if they were even major hurricanes when they went through the box. (The above-quoted language suggests that being cat 3+ while in the box is one of the criteria -- not sure if that was intentional.) Andrew was outside the box, although close to it, and was not a major hurricane (was it a hurricane at all?) at the time.

I don't know of any others that have passed through the box and struck South Florida as majors. So that's 2 that fit the criteria, 3 if you count Andrew; it's not even mathematically possible to come up with a number of "misses" that would make that 90% figure correct.

And there's a reason for that: it isn't correct. Many storms pass through the box without affecting South Florida. Some of those storms pass through the box as major hurricanes.

Passing through the box does correlate to a higher chance of a South Florida hit, and a hit by a major (which makes sense based on location - north of the islands but not too far north, SE of S. Fla., etc.), but it's not a 90% guarantee or anything close to it.

I think Hebert's box/square has become the stuff of urban legend.

-Brad

it is misinformation (probably not deliberate). should read something like 90% of majors that hit the three SE florida counties from the atlantic side went through the box, not the converse. of course half that go through the box probably miss the east coast, and the remainder hit elsewhere. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 31 2004 11:53 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 31 2004 11:35 PM
. * * Stair stepping back west? Bloodstar   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:55 AM
. * * Re: eyewall replacement? mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:58 AM
. * * Forecast discussion -- Frances Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:06 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:18 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances jlauderdal   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:22 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:29 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances Bloodstar   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:48 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Headings danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:45 AM
. * * interesting john03   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:42 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:26 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:08 AM
. * * Re: recon Steve   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:03 AM
. * * Hebert's box/square misinformation Brad   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation Brad   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:00 AM
. * * Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... joepub1   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... joepub1   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... N. Brevard   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:52 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Bev   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... joepub1   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Pam in Vero   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:05 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... cyclone_head   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:42 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:05 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:07 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:22 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Models john03   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... javlin   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... WeatherNLU   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... rjp   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Latest GFS..... Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation AgentB   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation DroopGB31   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas LI Phil   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas LI Phil   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas HurriK   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:20 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances javlin   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:32 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances BillD   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:41 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances DroopGB31   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances ShaggyDude   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:45 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances BillD   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:53 PM
. * * 11pm Stewart Discussion Justin in Miami   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans sullynole   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans DroopGB31   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans DroopGB31   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:09 PM
. * * Watches / Warnings Justin in Miami   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans scottsvb1   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans scottsvb1   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans wxman007   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Stewart fans SirCane   Tue Aug 31 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances wxman007   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Stacey's Fan Club... LI Phil   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Stacey's Fan Club... ShaggyDude   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:56 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances wxman007   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:40 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances ShaggyDude   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:41 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances BillD   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances ShaggyDude   Tue Aug 31 2004 10:47 PM

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