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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re:Frances and GOM
      Wed Sep 01 2004 02:30 PM

Very tough forcast to give especialy after 72 hours. First with the models we seem them change from run to run so dont accept a path a model shows cause it might change the next run. Can it be right? Of course but wait to see if the model initalizes that positon right to start, then see if it has the last 3-4 runs and shows the same path. If its been on track then that run gets favored but not set in stone. CMC has generally been off to the N of the current track. GFS has been just a tad to the NE over the last 24 hours as is most of the guidance. The tropical model suites have shifted every time the GFS does and the ETA has been 12 hours behind the GFS following tracks it has 12 hours earlier. Nogaps and the GFDL have performed well during the first 24 hours but then diverage with the GFDL more N and the Nogaps more WNW-NW motion,both bring Frances on a decent clip that its going now. Difference between the 2 after 24 hours is the Nogaps been right while the GFDL nudes each run alittle to the sw due to it having to initialize the next run more sw at the start. The UKMET has adjust more NE but was too far N in its ooz run last night to today.
Overall its a clear path to the WNW up to ner Grand Bahama Island. Then the tricky part comes, most models show eigther a drift to the W or a 24 hour turn to just N of W making landfall. Since this could make landfall as early as Sat morning that would be near Boca Raton. But also it could stay up and parrelle the coast near Melbourne then move NNW and head up to Hilton Head by Sunday night or Monday morning. Since that is after 72 hours i wont give that my offical forcast but since I have to go out on a limb here I would agree with the current path with most models up to Grand Bahama island then move towards the coast near Jupitar or Stuart florida on Saturday evening. I think it might go onshore Sat night near there but its at the 84-96 hour period from now. This is in between the Nogaps and Ukmet solutions. This wont be a Andrew system path but like Clark on here said,, more like eigther a Floyd (but alot closer) or Erin from 1995 and move slowly onshore wnw late Sat evening or night. Winds near Cat 4. Watch might go up by 11pm tonight, if not earlier from I would say Dade county up thru Palm beach. scottsvb ( will post more from time to time)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Frances in the Morning MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 01 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning mrorlmagik   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning BobVee   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Lindsey   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Roberta   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Roberta   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:24 PM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:37 PM
. * * Re: recon TROY   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:49 PM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Bahamas under the gun for a 36 hour nightmare, starting now rickonboat   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:09 PM
. * * Re: recon now 3 planes out mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:05 PM
. * * Re: recon HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:48 PM
. * * Re: recon Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Palm Beach County Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Palm Beach County Pam in Vero   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Re: fla john03   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:16 PM
. * * Florida Hurricane Storm Surge Atlas LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Re: recon wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Floridacane   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ormond Suzie   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning anany   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning *DELETED* alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re:Storm Surge Brevard County FL John C   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:07 PM
. * * Re:Storm Surge Brevard County FL alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Re:Storm Surge Brevard County FL Redbird   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:26 PM
. * * Orange, Volusia, Seminole Counties Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Steve hirschb.   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:16 PM
. * * Roberta Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning fredwx   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ed geary   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning oscar   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:47 AM
. * * Eye? palmetto   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Eye? zacros   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Eye? John G.   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Eye? Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:55 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Justin in Miami   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning trinibaje   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Cathy   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning AmateurJohn   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:30 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Dani   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:35 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning AmateurJohn   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Dani   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning joepub1   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Dani   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Steve hirschb.   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning eligrace   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:43 AM
. * * I don't see it either Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:50 AM
. * * Re: I agree on one point Frank javlin   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:10 AM
. * * Re: I agree on one point Frank Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:19 AM
. * * Re: I agree on one point Frank GaryC   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:28 AM
. * * Compass degrees intro 101 Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:42 AM
. * * Miami bound, maybe rickonboat   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Miami bound, maybe kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Re: I agree on one point Frank jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:26 AM
. * * Re: I agree on one point Frank javlin   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Steve hirschb.   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning FlaRebel   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning TIGER   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning cjzydeco   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:23 AM
. * * Re: A98E model-backtrack danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:38 AM
. * * Re: A98E model-backtrack Fingers1116   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:47 AM
. * * Re: A98E model-backtrack Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:16 AM
. * * Re: A98E model-backtrack Fingers1116   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:34 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:05 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM doug   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:08 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:20 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM doug   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:39 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:51 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:00 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:03 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:13 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:08 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:12 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:15 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:23 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:47 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Rabbit   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:03 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM meto   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM meto   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:08 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM GaryC   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:14 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM SirCane   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Rabbit   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:17 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Shawn W.   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM RevUp   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:29 PM
. * * Controlled Chaos rmbjoe1954   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Controlled Chaos Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Controlled Chaos andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:45 PM
. * * Controlled Chaos rmbjoe1954   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:25 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Rabbit   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:30 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM doug   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:41 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Chad   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:48 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:54 PM
. * * Frances' Eye Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Eye scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:27 PM
. * * Yo Scott Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:31 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:54 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM lis   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:48 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:55 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Brad   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:08 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Rabbit   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:12 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM SC Bill   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:27 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM raeolight   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:14 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Kal   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:31 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Shawn W.   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:30 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM MIAMIFL   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:12 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Kal   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:45 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:28 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:26 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Shawn W.   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:08 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM AphCane04   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:46 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM obshaz   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:52 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:09 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM obshaz   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:31 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Steve hirschb.   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM javlin   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:01 PM
. * * General Thoughts... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:16 PM
. * * Re: General Thoughts... andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:22 PM
. * * Re: General Thoughts... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: General Thoughts... jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: General Thoughts... fred08   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:37 PM
. * * 5PM Update Doombot!   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:43 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update Ed in Va   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:50 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update AphCane04   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:58 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update Bloodstar   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:53 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update cwmajors   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:57 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update fred08   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:03 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update RockledgeRick   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:31 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update Bev   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:44 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:16 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:06 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:51 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update BillD at work   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:51 PM
. * * Re: General Thoughts... jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:31 PM
. * * Re: General Thoughts... Shawn W.   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:33 PM
. * * Lee County - Cape Coral? Martha   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Palm Beach County WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Lee County - Cape Coral? Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:48 PM
. * * Coordinate locator SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Coordinate locator SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:01 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:55 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM AgentB   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Re: not much different mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re: not much different andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Re: not much different AgentB   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: not much different andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:33 PM
. * * Re: not much different jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Northward turn? LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Northward turn? alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Northward turn? jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Northward turn? rjp   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:57 PM
. * * Miami bound babeeee rickonboat   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Northward turn? Bloodstar   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Northward turn? BillD at work   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:44 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:36 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:37 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:22 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM schmoo   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:25 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:29 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:40 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM AgentB   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:52 AM
. * * Re:Latest Wind Swath SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:45 AM
. * * betting against climo and history? bobbi   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:44 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Jeffmidtown   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning rmbjoe1954   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Kroemerk   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning C.J.inNaples   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ed in Va   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning anonymous   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning raeolight   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning rjp   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning raeolight   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:10 PM

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