Frances is not weakening in any significant amount...the eyewall replacement cycle disrupted her briefly, but the last few images she seems to be gathering herself back together. I see the pinching or elongation, and I think that the west side is "feeling" the remnants of that ULL...
The last frame or two of the vis's seem to imply a slightly more N jog, but this could be due to the refomation cycle...we need a few more frames of imagery to know if this is the beginning of a NW turn...if this is not the beginning of the turn, it needs to start really soon to get the more northerly tracks to verify.
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