I think they have a very good idea of where Frances "might" go, but now that they have realized the models were even slightly screwed up (it only takes a little) they don't trust anything (and they shouldn't).
Just subtract 4 from Z time to get EDT (subtract 5 to get EST when we are not on daylight savings). So 00Z is 20 (24 - 4) or 8PM EDT. It depends on the model, but most come out within 2 - 4 hours of their "time". Some models used to be held back from the public for a few extra hours, not sure if they do that now or not.
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