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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: Up close and personal
      Thu Sep 02 2004 12:33 AM

Mr. Spock -- I'll concur with Jamie's reply a few posts up from here on his comments to your post. I jut don't agree with the GFS solution myself, either.

What we are seeing over the east central US right now is called trough fracture. Essentially, three days ago, there was a very sharp trough located across the region, moving towards the subtropical ridge. However, the recurvature of Gaston and track of Frances served to enhance the ridge (in addition to an amplified pattern leading to ridge enhancement as well). You can see historically a number of cases where recurving tropical cyclones strengthen the ridge beneath them for some time.

Now, that trough has split into two pieces, as it could not make it through the ridge. The northern portion is going the way of Gaston and making little or no southward progress. The southern portion, with a weak ULL in Alabama/Mississippi, is moving every so slowly northward around the periphery of the ridge as well. There is no further energy to drive into this ridge until the system in the Pacific NW makes it across the country...and it is at a fairly high latitude now as it is.

A strong storm like Frances is going to gradually turn a bit to the north with time -- Coriolis and other dynamical effects say it will -- but I'm not sure I buy it slamming into the ridge and stalling like it has forecasted to date. What worries me is that the GFS has done the best of all models through yesterday with the 120hr forecast, with errors between 100-150mi. It'll either no longer be there in a few days, or it will have solidly beat the other models.

Note about the Eta -- the storm only recently has entered it's grid domain (it only covers part of the Atlantic). It gets its boundary conditions (what is going on at the edge of the domain) from the GFS. Thus, until just the past couple of runs, it has been heavily influenced by the GFS model output -- as have a number of the other models. We'll see how long that lasts.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 02 2004 12:33 AM
. * * Lee County- Cape Coral??!?! What can I expect Martha   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast cdbeavers   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast indialanticwes   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast jaybythebay   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast GuppieGrouper   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast Ricreig   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:51 PM
. * * stewart's piece HanKFranK   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:07 PM
. * * Re: stewart's piece Tanbark   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:37 PM
. * * Re: stewart's piece MIAMIFL   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast h2ocean   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:12 PM
. * * From the other forum LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:38 PM
. * * H2Ocean StormHound   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:32 PM
. * * Re: H2Ocean danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:51 PM
. * * Re: H2Ocean indialanticwes   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:53 PM
. * * RE: Earlier post about bad dropsondes... StormHound   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:35 PM
. * * Re: RE: Earlier post about bad dropsondes... Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast MIAMIFL   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:31 PM
. * * GFS is coming in.... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:31 PM
. * * Re: GFS is coming in.... MrSpock   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:36 PM
. * * Locat met has me sitting up and paying closer attention... Southern4sure   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:27 PM
. * * ZULU/UTC time LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast TAZRACER   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast lis   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast javlin   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Track Shift Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift Ricreig   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Up close and personal Richsurfs   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Up close and personal MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:18 AM
. * * You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run Frank P   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:59 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:29 AM
. * * Re: eoc fred08   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:45 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Advisory danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:55 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Advisory mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:59 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Advisory Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:57 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Advisory HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:57 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:44 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:58 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:07 AM
. * * 2AM Update Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:25 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:28 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:31 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update meto   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:49 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:29 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:32 AM
. * * Sat Track Bloodstar   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:43 AM
. * * Re: Sat Track Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Sat Track meto   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:20 AM
. * * Re: Evacuations danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:29 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:57 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:38 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix Hurric   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:58 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix Roberta   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:14 AM
. * * Re: Alabama danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:23 AM
. * * Re: Alabama lis   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:59 AM
. * * Re: Alabama Louie   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:21 AM
. * * Re: Alabama TAZMAN   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:35 AM
. * * Re: Alabama LadyStorm   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:33 AM
. * * Re: Alabama Louie   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:46 AM
. * * Re: Ft Lauderdale danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:17 AM
. * * Re: Alabama Roberta   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:39 AM
. * * Re: Alabama danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:58 AM
. * * Re: Alabama Roberta   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:15 AM
. * * Forecast tracks MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:44 AM
. * * Re: Traffic Conditions danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:31 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex Message danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:53 AM
. * * water vapor loop MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:58 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex Message francois   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:56 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex Message danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:05 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex Message francois   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:17 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex Message Ricreig   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:48 AM
. * * flights Domino   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:22 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:22 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix Hurric   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:22 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix Hurric   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:01 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:06 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:12 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix Hurric   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:06 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:05 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:01 AM
. * * Re:Hur Watch Extended South danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:36 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:36 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:41 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update Storm Cooper   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:49 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:44 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update fred08   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:50 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:41 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:07 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:05 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:00 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:05 AM
. * * Re: sats bck in 30 mins? john03   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:01 AM
. * * 2AM Doombot!   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:06 AM
. * * Re: 2AM mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:08 AM
. * * Re: 2AM BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:13 AM
. * * Re: 2AM meto   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: 2AM mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:24 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:27 AM
. * * Re: Vortex Report danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:17 AM
. * * Re: 2AM wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:16 AM
. * * Re: 2AM BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: 2AM mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:16 AM
. * * Re: 2AM fred08   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: 2AM meto   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:28 AM
. * * Re: 2AM mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:10 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run javlin   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Up close and personal BabyCat   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Up close and personal StormHound   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Up close and personal Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Up close and personal SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: more west movement? john03   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:54 PM
. * * Re: more west movement? Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal Doombot!   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Up close and personal SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift LoisCane   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Jim Cantore erauwx   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:59 PM
. * * How do you responnd... LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:03 AM
. * * Re: How do you responnd... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:16 AM
. * * Re: How do you responnd... RevUp   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Current Traffic Counts danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:23 AM
. * * Re: Current Traffic Counts Londovir   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Jim Cantore scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Jim Cantore meto   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Jim Cantore scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Jim Cantore Dennis S   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:15 AM
. * * Max Mayfield WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: traffic fred08   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Jim Cantore BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Jim Cantore MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:08 AM
. * * Talk about further east MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:30 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift lis   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift BabyCat   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:00 AM
. * * New GFS... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:09 AM
. * * Re: New GFS... rjp   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:17 AM
. * * Re: New GFS... rjp   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:22 AM
. * * GFS & Evacuations Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: GFS & Evacuations fred08   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:49 AM
. * * New NOGAPS... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:22 AM
. * * Re: New NOGAPS... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:30 AM
. * * Re: New NOGAPS... scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:33 AM
. * * Re: New GFS... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:16 AM
. * * Re: New GFS... SirCane   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:15 AM
. * * Re: New GFS... scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift Bloodstar   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Londovir   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Pam in Vero   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Southern4sure   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift javlin   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:59 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift john03   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift DMFischer   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift meto   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Bev   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:13 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:07 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Frank P   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:01 AM
. * * models LoisCane   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:39 AM
. * * Re: models Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: models scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift WEST AND SOUTH MIAMIFL   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:16 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift meto   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:46 AM
. * * Re: recon john03   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Re: recon danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: recon john03   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:39 AM
. * * Re: recon Bloodstar   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: recon Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:46 AM

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