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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL
It Shifts Left
      Thu Sep 02 2004 06:32 AM

11AM
Hurricane Warnings are now up.... From Florida City in Extreme Southern Mainland Florida, to Flager Beach Between Daytona And Jacksonville. This also includes Lake Okechobee. It is coming folks.

Hurricane warnings mean hurricane conditions can be expected within 24 hours... That does not mean landfall in 24 hours, just the edge of hurricane conditions. Today is the day to act folks.

Original Update
Good morning, as Hurricane Frances nears the Central Bahamas (Click here to read personal reports from the Bahama Islands), the latest projections are in this morning (As of 5AM) and the tracks shifted left, bringing the landfall point closer to Jupiter Inlet than Vero Beach, but still up through Central Florida into near Orlando... basically up the Florida's Turnpike.

Do not focus on the exact point of landfall, the deviation may be great up or down the coast because of the angle of approach!


The Hurricane watch was extended southward to include parts of the Upper keys and remains up north through Flagler Beach in Flager County.


However, Frances is a large storm, quite a deal so more than Charley in respect to pure area of winds and more. Do not take the point of landfall as the end all. It could be left or right of it, and depending the angle of approach it could be off quite a bit north or south. The forecast track has the storm moving painfully slow through Florida as well.

The fact that models are STILL split as to what Frances will do is also disturbing. Please don't take the projected track as the end all. From the Keys all the way into Carolinas. Hurricane Warnings will be issued today, and a lot of barrier islands in the watch area will likely be evacuated later today. (Please see local media/officials for up to date information on that)

More to come later today.

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:

Melbourne (East Central Florida)
Miami (South Florida)
Key West (Florida Keys)

Local county by county information will no longer be updated unles there is breaking news here -- it's just impossible to keep up because of the size of the area under Hurricane Watch. Use the links in the last article to view county emergency management webpages. Florida Disaster.org is the state em page, with links to locals as well.

Definitely more to come later...

** SITE NOTE ** This website is receiving way beyond record traffic today, it will be slow, it will go down ocasionally, but should be back up shortly when that happens. We've done everything we can to help this along short of dumping zillions into bandwidth and hardware to keep it going. Apologies in advance.

Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tonight at 8PM EST.

Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)



General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* It Shifts Left MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 02 2004 06:32 AM
. * * From NWS Melbourne clyde w.   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:14 PM
. * * Re: From NWS Melbourne Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: From NWS Melbourne clyde w.   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:30 PM
. * * 5pm just in HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:32 PM
. * * Re: 5pm just in RevUp   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:37 PM
. * * looks nice in boca Domino   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: From NWS Melbourne HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:19 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left bob07   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:44 PM
. * * blink HanKFranK   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:03 PM
. * * Re: blink jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:10 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left DroopGB31   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:53 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Rabbit   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:00 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Mark Bendiksen   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:58 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:56 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left andy1tom   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:10 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left DroopGB31   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Thoughts.... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:13 PM
. * * question from Gainesville guestfromGville   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: question from Gainesville wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:55 PM
. * * Re: question from Gainesville Terry51   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: question from Gainesville Terry Johnson   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:21 PM
. * * SWIMMING POOL SCREEN CAGES Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:59 PM
. * * Shelters safe or leave completely? ShadowWind   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Shelters safe or leave completely? RevUp   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Frances - did she make the turn ticka1   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Frances - did she make the turn MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Frances - did she make the turn jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Frances - did she make the turn MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:33 PM
. * * MLB AFD wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:41 PM
. * * Re: MLB AFD clyde w.   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:58 PM
. * * Re: MLB AFD wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Re: MLB AFD bmw   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Frances - did she make the turn Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Frances - did she make the turn Ronn   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:19 PM
. * * Re: SWIMMING POOL SCREEN CAGES Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Thoughts.... Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:47 PM
. * * Cape Coral Wendell   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:24 PM
. * * Interesting coincidences.... Londovir   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:57 PM
. * * Pinpoint Weather.... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:47 PM
. * * Strom Surge Map for Space Coast Rubber Ducky   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Interesting discussion from NWS MLB Jamiewx   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... UPPERLEVEL WINDS   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... fred08   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... DroopGB31   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... Orlando, FL   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Flood Watches Extended in Florida Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:44 PM
. * * Max Mayfield Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Cape Coral DroopGB31   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:32 PM
. * * Scary2 LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:23 PM
. * * New Vortex... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:20 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:50 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:00 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:22 PM
. * * Models SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:56 PM
. * * P.S. SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Scary... LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Scary... jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Scary... alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Scary... LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Scary... SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Scary... alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:07 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left bob07   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:35 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left J Thomas   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left pjoo   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:44 PM
. * * Airport Ops at Orlando Fredric   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Londovir   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:39 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:38 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Why would it stall alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:39 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left HCRay   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:35 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left DroopGB31   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:44 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left crm9501   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:22 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:23 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left andy1tom   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:32 PM
. * * Thanks, Mike LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike DJINFLA   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike eligrace   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:48 PM
. * * Re: JB *Teal61   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:45 PM
. * * OK.... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:50 PM
. * * Re: OK.... SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:57 PM
. * * Re: OK.... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re: OK.... doug   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:17 PM
. * * Re: OK.... MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:21 PM
. * * Eye Replacing SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Dvorak's LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike Bloodstar   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: traffic fred08   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Palm Beach County WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:45 PM
. * * Re: eywall john03   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Palm Beach County alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Palm Beach County andy1tom   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Palm Beach County SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:10 PM
. * * Re: turning north, please please please Rasvar   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:14 PM
. * * Latest thoughts WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:59 PM
. * * Track Comparison - Andrew, Floyd, Frances, Donna Bev   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Track Comparison - Andrew, Floyd, Frances, Donna Londovir   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Track Comparison - Andrew, Floyd, Frances, Donna Artsy Fartsy   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:23 PM
. * * Update LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Update SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:14 PM
. * * Stuart, fl Robert   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Stuart, fl CASps   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Floyd/Andrew/Frances overlay Artsy Fartsy   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Floyd/Andrew/Frances overlay MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:41 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left nervous/curious   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:17 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Sadie   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:10 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left kelcot   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:14 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Kruz   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:21 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:24 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left GulfSide   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:51 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:36 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left AgentB   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:50 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left kelcot   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left andy1tom   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:54 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left kelcot   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left andy1tom   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:13 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left kelcot   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:53 PM
. * * Frances, Floyd and Andrew LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Frances, Floyd and Andrew SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:58 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:29 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left UGAdawgz   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:43 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left TAZMAN   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:35 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:24 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left ticka1   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:20 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Terra D   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:39 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Ed G   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:52 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:10 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left eligrace   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:13 PM
. * * Miami Beach told to evacuate Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:09 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:40 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left ned1316   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:10 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:06 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left JimAnderson   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:19 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:18 AM
. * * Various Thoughts Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:00 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Ricreig   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:12 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left TAZMAN   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:19 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left DroopGB31   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:37 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left RevUp   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:00 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:45 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left deborah2002   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:04 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Frank P   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:27 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left dzinermw   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:05 AM
. * * my thoughts and questions LoisCane   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:30 AM
. * * Re: my thoughts and questions Chelsie   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:47 AM
. * * Re: my thoughts and questions Proflhb   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: my thoughts and questions Chelsie   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:34 AM
. * * Re: my thoughts and questions c ray   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Re: my thoughts and questions Ricreig   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:51 AM
. * * Re: my thoughts and questions c ray   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:13 PM
. * * Jacksonville Update Proflhb   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:40 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left storm1   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:20 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:32 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Felix   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:05 AM
. * * Advice from Punta Gorda Proflhb   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:09 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left mojorox   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:39 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:42 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left cooljunkie   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:10 AM
. * * to high rise junkie lois   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:11 PM
. * * Re: to high rise junkie MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:13 PM
. * * Charley Lessons... the hard way. Bev   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:36 PM
. * * Yikes! LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Yikes! Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Yikes! doug   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Charley Lessons... the hard way. RAD,not logged   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Charley Lessons... the hard way. alicia   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Charley Lessons... the hard way. lilyv   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:02 PM
. * * NW all the way! SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:07 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:16 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Frank P   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:21 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left trinibaje   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:26 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Ed in Va   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:28 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left luki   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:15 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Frank P   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:59 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left ticka1   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:25 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Bocagirl   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:23 AM
. * * Hobson's Choice in coastal Brevard RubberDucky   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:09 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:38 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Mousie5   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:51 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left skippy1   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:22 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:25 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left skippy1   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:29 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:27 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:25 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left lis   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:43 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left NLBJAX   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:07 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:12 PM
. * * News from Jacksonville Proflhb   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:48 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Humanriff   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:05 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left crm9501   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:48 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left skippy1   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:12 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Fingers1116   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:59 AM
. * * decision day... nickyd   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:10 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left anony   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:41 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left TAZMAN   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:43 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left LisaP   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:40 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Cocoa Beach   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Ricreig   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:04 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left RevUp   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:27 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:57 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Rmh   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:51 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:49 AM

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