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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: New Vortex Message
      Thu Sep 02 2004 06:48 AM

Quote:

Thanks a lot danielw. What will be the wind speed when Frances hits Orlando?


The storm will likely come in *somewhere* as a Cat IV storm. As you appear to be in or near Orlando, it is reasonable to expect that IF the storm comes in as IV and travels over LOW land and only for 50-80 miles, that it will remain strong, probably at least Cat III as it probably won't slow down much in that distance and distance from its' "food" source (the ocean). It is so large that even if it come in near VRB, its' low angle of entry will leave a lot of the storm offshore and 'feeding' at least some. So, assume a Cat III.

The terms Cat III and IV are defined by the Saffire-Simpson scale. The NHC has defined those categories thus:

Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Roxanne of 1995 and Fran of 1996 were Category Three hurricanes at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in North Carolina, respectively.


Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Luis of 1995 was a Category Four hurricane while moving over the Leeward Islands. Hurricanes Felix and Opal of 1995 also reached Category Four status at peak intensity.


You can go to the NHC site for definitions of the rest of the categories. Less than Cat III *usually* does not cause structural damage to homes but shingles and tiles may be h istory, certainly trees are at risk and flying debris can be lethal if you are out in the storm and a piece of someones lawn furnerature hits you, or a tree limb, but *usually* it isn't considered a major disaster. With III-V, it is a major storm with significant damage to 'utter destruction' possible at the high end.

For those in the Ft Laud / Tampa area, ON THE PRESENT FORECAST, you could see Cat I wind or just TS winds. so flooding is your main problem. Decide based on your elevation and dsaster plan reccomendations and govt official evacuation orders. Water, more so than wind will be your problem.

FORECASTS CHANGE and IF the storm goes well West & South, you may face stronger wind on the west coast, and conversely, if you live further East of the current forecast track, you may experience MORE wind and flooding. That is why it is important to KEEP INFORMED and ACT EARLY based upon current information, not speculation on what *might* happen IF some model says this or that *might* happen. Wishcasting kills people by giving often false hope that it will be better if you wait....Balderdash! If you choose the wrong model because the lines look nicer for you, you are putting your life at risk if you have *guessed* wrong. The OFFICIAL forecast is your best bet, even if wrong, they are the pros that do just this kind of educated guesses. We pay a lot of tax money to pay their salaries and we need to trust them to do their jobs. Yes, they are human, but they are well educated in *this* field...are you? If not, trust their judgement. Expect what they tell you and be relieved if it isn't as bad as forecast.

While you have to make your own *informed* decisions, their forecasts are a best place to begin. Whatever you do, NOW is almost too late to do much changing of plans, that's why your need to prepare and ACT early.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 02 2004 06:48 AM
. * * Lee County- Cape Coral??!?! What can I expect Martha   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast cdbeavers   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast indialanticwes   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast jaybythebay   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast GuppieGrouper   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast Ricreig   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:51 PM
. * * stewart's piece HanKFranK   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:07 PM
. * * Re: stewart's piece Tanbark   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:37 PM
. * * Re: stewart's piece MIAMIFL   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast h2ocean   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:12 PM
. * * From the other forum LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:38 PM
. * * H2Ocean StormHound   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:32 PM
. * * Re: H2Ocean danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:51 PM
. * * Re: H2Ocean indialanticwes   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:53 PM
. * * RE: Earlier post about bad dropsondes... StormHound   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:35 PM
. * * Re: RE: Earlier post about bad dropsondes... Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast MIAMIFL   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:31 PM
. * * GFS is coming in.... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:31 PM
. * * Re: GFS is coming in.... MrSpock   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:36 PM
. * * Locat met has me sitting up and paying closer attention... Southern4sure   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:27 PM
. * * ZULU/UTC time LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast TAZRACER   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast lis   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast javlin   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Track Shift Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift Ricreig   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Up close and personal Richsurfs   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Up close and personal MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:18 AM
. * * You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run Frank P   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:59 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:29 AM
. * * Re: eoc fred08   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:45 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Advisory danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:55 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Advisory mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:59 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Advisory Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:57 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Advisory HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:57 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:44 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:58 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:07 AM
. * * 2AM Update Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:25 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:28 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:31 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update meto   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:49 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:29 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:32 AM
. * * Sat Track Bloodstar   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:43 AM
. * * Re: Sat Track Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Sat Track meto   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:20 AM
. * * Re: Evacuations danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:29 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:57 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:38 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix Hurric   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:58 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix Roberta   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:14 AM
. * * Re: Alabama danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:23 AM
. * * Re: Alabama lis   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:59 AM
. * * Re: Alabama Louie   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:21 AM
. * * Re: Alabama TAZMAN   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:35 AM
. * * Re: Alabama LadyStorm   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:33 AM
. * * Re: Alabama Louie   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:46 AM
. * * Re: Ft Lauderdale danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:17 AM
. * * Re: Alabama Roberta   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:39 AM
. * * Re: Alabama danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:58 AM
. * * Re: Alabama Roberta   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:15 AM
. * * Forecast tracks MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:44 AM
. * * Re: Traffic Conditions danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:31 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex Message danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:53 AM
. * * water vapor loop MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:58 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex Message francois   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:56 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex Message danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:05 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex Message francois   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:17 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex Message Ricreig   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:48 AM
. * * flights Domino   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:22 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:22 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix Hurric   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:22 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix Hurric   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:01 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:06 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:12 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix Hurric   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:06 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:05 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex fix rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:01 AM
. * * Re:Hur Watch Extended South danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:36 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:36 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:41 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update Storm Cooper   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:49 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:44 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update fred08   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:50 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Update rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:41 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:07 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:05 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:00 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:05 AM
. * * Re: sats bck in 30 mins? john03   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:01 AM
. * * 2AM Doombot!   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:06 AM
. * * Re: 2AM mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:08 AM
. * * Re: 2AM BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:13 AM
. * * Re: 2AM meto   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: 2AM mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:24 AM
. * * Re: 2AM Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:27 AM
. * * Re: Vortex Report danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:17 AM
. * * Re: 2AM wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:16 AM
. * * Re: 2AM BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: 2AM mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:16 AM
. * * Re: 2AM fred08   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: 2AM meto   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:28 AM
. * * Re: 2AM mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:10 AM
. * * Re: You want south and west.... look at the latest CMC run javlin   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Up close and personal BabyCat   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Up close and personal StormHound   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Up close and personal Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Up close and personal SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: more west movement? john03   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:54 PM
. * * Re: more west movement? Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Up close and personal Doombot!   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Up close and personal SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift LoisCane   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Jim Cantore erauwx   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:59 PM
. * * How do you responnd... LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:03 AM
. * * Re: How do you responnd... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:16 AM
. * * Re: How do you responnd... RevUp   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Current Traffic Counts danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:23 AM
. * * Re: Current Traffic Counts Londovir   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Jim Cantore scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Jim Cantore meto   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Jim Cantore scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Jim Cantore Dennis S   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:15 AM
. * * Max Mayfield WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: traffic fred08   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Jim Cantore BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Jim Cantore MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:08 AM
. * * Talk about further east MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:30 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift lis   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift BabyCat   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:00 AM
. * * New GFS... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:09 AM
. * * Re: New GFS... rjp   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:17 AM
. * * Re: New GFS... rjp   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:22 AM
. * * GFS & Evacuations Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: GFS & Evacuations fred08   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:49 AM
. * * New NOGAPS... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:22 AM
. * * Re: New NOGAPS... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:30 AM
. * * Re: New NOGAPS... scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:33 AM
. * * Re: New GFS... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:16 AM
. * * Re: New GFS... SirCane   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:15 AM
. * * Re: New GFS... scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift Bloodstar   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Londovir   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Pam in Vero   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Southern4sure   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift javlin   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:59 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift john03   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift DMFischer   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift meto   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Bev   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:13 AM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:07 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift Frank P   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:01 AM
. * * models LoisCane   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:39 AM
. * * Re: models Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: models scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift WEST AND SOUTH MIAMIFL   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:16 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift meto   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Track Shift danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift mikeG   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Track Shift danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:46 AM
. * * Re: recon john03   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Re: recon danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: recon john03   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:39 AM
. * * Re: recon Bloodstar   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: recon Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:46 AM

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