Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 70 (Nate) , Major: 87 (Maria) Florida - Any: 97 (Irma) Major: 97 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: Folks, please...
      Thu Sep 02 2004 11:41 PM

I'll second that. The mods and admins have been doing a great job handling the increased traffic and bandwidth.

Let's not go hog wild predicting intensification, whether in the Atlantic or the Gulf. 2.5 million people are now under evacuation orders. This could well surpass Floyd, to date the largest peace time evacuation in this nation's history, in terms of number of people evacuated. We can always pray for a quick, safe recurvature out to sea, but the storm has already changed many lives and will likely do so over the next three days. Forecasting this storm is a tough, tough job -- and often times a thankless one.

I've had all of my family and friends in Orlando call or e-mail me asking where the storm is going. I've been telling them south of town for a couple of days. But, what if I were wrong? People make decisions based off of what they hear, whether it's from someone on this board or on television or from the hurricane center. That's why it is important to focus on the storm as a swath and not a point. That's why it's important not to needlessly worry people who are searching for information about the storm.

If you have valid reasoning behind what you think, by all means post it...along with the reasoning. But, please do use discretion in terms of posting statements without anything to back it up with. You never know who could stumble across your information and, despite the disclaimers, use it as advice and make a potentially life-changing decision...for better or worse.

As Phil said at the end of the previous thread, this job is best left to the NWS -- they do know what they are doing. There is room for augmentation however, with valid reasoning, and two highly intelligent, highly competent meteorologists can completely disagree on something like this -- and have valid reasons behind both scenarios. I've seen it happen time after time, particularly with this storm. But, it's best to leave this sort of thing to the pros. Anything I, or Jason, or HF, or anyone posts here should be taken with a grain of salt -- use it to educate yourself, learn more about the science, be prepared...and then review statements from your local emergency management officials, from your local NWS office, and from the NHC. I can't emphasize that enough.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Frances at 11PM MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 02 2004 11:41 PM
. * * The gulfstream Alex.K   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:05 PM
. * * Re: The gulfstream JG   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:09 PM
. * * Weakening Rabbit   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Weakening JG   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Weakening danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:10 PM
. * * slow down.. bobbi   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Re:Glad to be In javlin   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Movement? SonnerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Movement? SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Movement? danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:09 AM
. * * TWC Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:34 AM
. * * The trend over? Alex.K   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:23 AM
. * * Here's the rub... LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Here's the rub... Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:53 AM
. * * Frances seems to be crawing at the moment Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Weakening BabyCat   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Jamiewx   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Weakening jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Weakening danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Weakening HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Weakening jaybythebay   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:01 PM
. * * Folks, please... LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Folks, please... Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:09 AM
. * * hey jason..and Phil and NHC bobbi   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:20 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:30 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:42 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:09 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:18 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:26 AM
. * * Re: recon john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:39 AM
. * * Re:sats john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:54 AM
. * * Re:sats jth off   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:56 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:58 AM
. * * Re:sats bck jth off   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:59 AM
. * * Re:sats bck Humanriff   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:02 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:04 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:01 AM
. * * Re:sats bck danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:05 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:06 AM
. * * Re:sats bck danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:11 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:15 AM
. * * Re:Orange danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:25 AM
. * * Re:Orange john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:37 AM
. * * Re:NWS Miami update danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:34 AM
. * * Re:NWS Key West update danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:43 AM
. * * Re:NWS Key West update john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:46 AM
. * * Re:LSU danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:49 AM
. * * Re:LSU john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:52 AM
. * * Re:LSU Becky1322   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:15 AM
. * * Re:LSU danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:06 AM
. * * Re: sat john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:15 AM
. * * Re: sat danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:35 AM
. * * Re:LSU scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:11 AM
. * * Re:LSU 666   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:03 AM
. * * Re:LSU LadyStorm   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:09 AM
. * * Frances continues to weaken berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:17 AM
. * * Re: Frances continues to weaken danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:25 AM
. * * Following Lowest Pressure berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:36 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure firestar_1   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:14 AM
. * * Track WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure LeftOrlando   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:43 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure LakeCountySeat   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:41 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure rmbjoe1954   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:49 AM
. * * Re: Just in Time danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:40 AM
. * * Subsidence W of Frances? berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:51 AM
. * * Is Frances a dud? Wxwatcher2   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:09 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? 52255225   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:53 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? RevUp   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? Rasvar   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? HanKFranK   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:05 AM
. * * Seems like they always....... Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Seems like they always....... Jeffmidtown   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Seems like they always....... DMFischer   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? 52255225   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? Rasvar   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:29 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? Ed in Va   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? maxwellincfl   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Color Sat pic danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:55 AM
. * * Re: LSU Sat pic danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:05 AM
. * * Re: Frances continues to weaken scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:29 AM
. * * Re: Frances continues to weaken scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:22 AM
. * * Re:Dud danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:12 AM
. * * Re: ridge fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:34 AM
. * * Re:Orange Timothy   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:30 AM
. * * Re:sats bck scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:18 AM
. * * Ivan and Frances Bloodstar   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:21 AM
. * * Re:sats bck fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:20 AM
. * * Tropical storm Ivan Matt033   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:33 AM
. * * Re:sats bck Rabbit   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:06 AM
. * * Re:sats danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:56 AM
. * * Re:sats danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Satellites danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:27 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:05 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:15 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... jth offline   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:00 AM
. * * Re: think comeback..... fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:17 AM
. * * Re: think comeback..... Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:23 AM
. * * Re: think comeback..... 666   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:59 AM
. * * Re: Colleen... danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Colleen... Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Satellites danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Satellites Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:58 AM
. * * I was wrong.... it is moving as forecast by NHC Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:38 AM
. * * Re: I was wrong.... it is moving as forecast by NHC Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:47 AM
. * * 0304Z Vortex message danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... jth offline   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:35 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... HCRay   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... HCRay   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:14 AM
. * * salt lick HanKFranK   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Re: salt lick Clark   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: salt lick Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: salt lick Clark   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:00 AM
. * * Re: salt lick bobbi   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Stewart's Discussion Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... Todd   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Weakening JG   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:32 PM
. * * I am here... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Weakening jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:57 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 69 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Thread views: 29780

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center