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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
salt lick
      Thu Sep 02 2004 11:58 PM

in my case maybe more than a grain, as of the listed i do not carry a met. degree. that said i've got a scenario-discussion for the overnight.
the convective pattern in the storm right now reminds me a little of bonnie (not this year's bonnie, the one in '98). different animal as far as synoptic conditions, but the storm got a wopperjawed inner core a couple days before landfall and never got it's act together on the way in. that may translate to our current system, as the eye seems to have collapsed and the pressure is stuck near 950. the system should at least maintain itself on the way in.. but if tomorrow morning the pressure has jumped up in the 960s it may in fact be one of those magical weakenings not officially forecast, but a saving grace in terms of intensity. remember, as phil likes to remind the board.. damage increases multiplicatively as the wind speed increases.. 125mph is well below 145mph in terms of damage potential... even if only a category down.
the other thing to watch for is what forecaster stewart (seems to have quite a following) mentions as a late game window for the storm to recharge.. after 24hr the current moderate shear regime is forecast to abate.. and the storm will be over gulf stream waters at the time. calculate that with what clark mentioned about a large envelope storm being less likely to strengthen up to landfall.. and it makes the steady state seem the best option. of course the storm may restructure itself and be back to it's former state tomorrow, but this evening brought what could be great news.. frances may have had it's edge taken off.
late mention of elsewheres..
td 9 signature improving, despite uncertainty with its center.. should become comrade ivan tomorrow. my idea with the storm is right edge of envelope, with significant strengthening as it nears the islands. tentative, but i'd trust it more than my official line on frances (ga/cat4). also, i was doing better with frances five days ago.. for good measure.
97L persists, moving slowly wnw. ridging should build back over it, give it a real development window. i'm not sure on whether it goes out or lingers behind the trough and resumes west. fully dependent on strength and timing... and that's as easy as calling a pitch against a pitcher you've never hit against.
such is the tropics as we enter september 3rd.
HF 0356z03september

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Frances at 11PM MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 02 2004 11:58 PM
. * * The gulfstream Alex.K   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:05 PM
. * * Re: The gulfstream JG   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:09 PM
. * * Weakening Rabbit   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Weakening JG   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Weakening danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:10 PM
. * * slow down.. bobbi   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Re:Glad to be In javlin   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Movement? SonnerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Movement? SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Movement? danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:09 AM
. * * TWC Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:34 AM
. * * The trend over? Alex.K   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:23 AM
. * * Here's the rub... LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Here's the rub... Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:53 AM
. * * Frances seems to be crawing at the moment Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Weakening BabyCat   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Jamiewx   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Weakening jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Weakening danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Weakening HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Weakening jaybythebay   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:01 PM
. * * Folks, please... LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Folks, please... Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:09 AM
. * * hey jason..and Phil and NHC bobbi   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:20 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:30 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:42 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:09 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:18 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:26 AM
. * * Re: recon john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:39 AM
. * * Re:sats john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:54 AM
. * * Re:sats jth off   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:56 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:58 AM
. * * Re:sats bck jth off   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:59 AM
. * * Re:sats bck Humanriff   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:02 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:04 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:01 AM
. * * Re:sats bck danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:05 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:06 AM
. * * Re:sats bck danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:11 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:15 AM
. * * Re:Orange danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:25 AM
. * * Re:Orange john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:37 AM
. * * Re:NWS Miami update danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:34 AM
. * * Re:NWS Key West update danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:43 AM
. * * Re:NWS Key West update john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:46 AM
. * * Re:LSU danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:49 AM
. * * Re:LSU john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:52 AM
. * * Re:LSU Becky1322   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:15 AM
. * * Re:LSU danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:06 AM
. * * Re: sat john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:15 AM
. * * Re: sat danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:35 AM
. * * Re:LSU scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:11 AM
. * * Re:LSU 666   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:03 AM
. * * Re:LSU LadyStorm   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:09 AM
. * * Frances continues to weaken berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:17 AM
. * * Re: Frances continues to weaken danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:25 AM
. * * Following Lowest Pressure berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:36 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure firestar_1   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:14 AM
. * * Track WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure LeftOrlando   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:43 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure LakeCountySeat   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:41 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure rmbjoe1954   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:49 AM
. * * Re: Just in Time danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:40 AM
. * * Subsidence W of Frances? berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:51 AM
. * * Is Frances a dud? Wxwatcher2   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:09 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? 52255225   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:53 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? RevUp   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? Rasvar   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? HanKFranK   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:05 AM
. * * Seems like they always....... Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Seems like they always....... Jeffmidtown   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Seems like they always....... DMFischer   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? 52255225   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? Rasvar   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:29 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? Ed in Va   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? maxwellincfl   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Color Sat pic danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:55 AM
. * * Re: LSU Sat pic danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:05 AM
. * * Re: Frances continues to weaken scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:29 AM
. * * Re: Frances continues to weaken scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:22 AM
. * * Re:Dud danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:12 AM
. * * Re: ridge fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:34 AM
. * * Re:Orange Timothy   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:30 AM
. * * Re:sats bck scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:18 AM
. * * Ivan and Frances Bloodstar   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:21 AM
. * * Re:sats bck fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:20 AM
. * * Tropical storm Ivan Matt033   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:33 AM
. * * Re:sats bck Rabbit   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:06 AM
. * * Re:sats danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:56 AM
. * * Re:sats danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Satellites danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:27 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:05 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:15 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... jth offline   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:00 AM
. * * Re: think comeback..... fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:17 AM
. * * Re: think comeback..... Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:23 AM
. * * Re: think comeback..... 666   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:59 AM
. * * Re: Colleen... danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Colleen... Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Satellites danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Satellites Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:58 AM
. * * I was wrong.... it is moving as forecast by NHC Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:38 AM
. * * Re: I was wrong.... it is moving as forecast by NHC Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:47 AM
. * * 0304Z Vortex message danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... jth offline   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:35 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... HCRay   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... HCRay   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:14 AM
. * * salt lick HanKFranK   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Re: salt lick Clark   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: salt lick Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: salt lick Clark   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:00 AM
. * * Re: salt lick bobbi   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Stewart's Discussion Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... Todd   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Weakening JG   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:32 PM
. * * I am here... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Weakening jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:57 PM

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