Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Nothing currently in the Atlantic Basin, for Late October the West Caribbean is usually where to monitor.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 11 (Nate) , Major: 29 (Maria) Florida - Any: 39 (Irma) Major: 39 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: salt lick
      Fri Sep 03 2004 12:27 AM

An interesting parallel between 1998 Bonnie and 2004 Frances is that they will go down as two of the most heavily-studied storms during the storm itself in the Atlantic to date. Bonnie had many planes in and out of it all the time as part of various recon flights and field missions (such as CAMEX 4) and as such has been well-studied. In fact, I'm reading a paper on it right now. Frances has had similar flights in and around it and, while the inner-core may not turn out to be as sampled as well as Bonnie, the synoptic environment around the storm has been sampled more heavily than any storm I can recall. In any circumstance, it should be interesting to see papers and research over the next 2 or so years on why the models failed with the ridge around the storm (and thus the forecast tracks).

As another aside, this list has been particularly bad to Florida...and the rest of the basin as well. A friend of mine pointed this out to me -- Allen, Andrew, Mitch, Georges, Charley, Frances -- all storms which came from this list. I'm sure the others probably have similar patterns, but this one is particularly notable.

To go more into my comment about large envelope storms being less likely to intensify near landfall -- the larger a storm is, the longer it takes to spin up. Think of the coin drains you used to see in shopping malls and grocery stores: drop a penny in and watch it go round and round. The smaller the drain, the faster it would move around and faster it would get to the center.

Now, picture a block of air on the periphery of the storm. With a smaller storm, it is going to circulate into the center faster, allowing for faster spin up due to the transfer of additional energy (angular momentum, other quantities I won't go into detail about here due to their complexity...ones which I don't understand either). With a larger storm, it'll eventually get there, but it's got a longer path to get to the center and will move slower around the periphery as well.

Frances isn't going to have *that* much time over the Gulf stream to spin up like that. Some increase is possible, but it should be very modest and in line with NHC projections. Furthermore, the larger circulation means that part of the circulation is going to be affected by the big landmass of Florida a lot sooner than a smaller circulation like Charley was. We've seen the little impacts the Bahamas have had on Frances; now, even once the storm gets to the Gulf Stream, about 20-25% of the circulation envelope will already be over Florida, a percentage that will increase as it nears shore. For part of the storm, its energy source will already be taken away by the time the center gets to the Gulf Stream (and before then, the other side of the storm will still be dealing with the Bahamas). Primarily for these two reasons and partially based upon climatology for these types of storms, that's why a steady-state (or nearly so, as the NHC calls for) solution is probably the best call in this case.

Brief note on TD 9 & 97L - TD 9 should be Ivan sometime tomorrow. The circulation is on the NE side of the convection, or so it appears, but if anything this is going to help it with the fast forward speed towards the west otherwise wanting to tend towards shifting the convection to the east of the center. The GFDL is probably way too high with the intensity, bringing a strong cat 4 hurricane through the central islands in 5 days, but with these deep tropics storms, you never know. Strange how many potential Caribbean storms we've had this year.

97L...it has a shot, but needs to develop some convection over its center. Currently, it's all well-removed to the north and east; it's got to show some better organization soon for it to have a shot. It's one for the fish in the end, and with more pressing matters, that's all I'm going to say about that one unless conditions otherwise warrant.

Okay, I said an hour ago I was going to get some rest -- I mean it this time!

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Frances at 11PM MikeCAdministrator Fri Sep 03 2004 12:27 AM
. * * The gulfstream Alex.K   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:05 PM
. * * Re: The gulfstream JG   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:09 PM
. * * Weakening Rabbit   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Weakening JG   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Weakening danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:10 PM
. * * slow down.. bobbi   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Re:Glad to be In javlin   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Movement? SonnerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Movement? SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Movement? danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:09 AM
. * * TWC Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:34 AM
. * * The trend over? Alex.K   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:23 AM
. * * Here's the rub... LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Here's the rub... Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:53 AM
. * * Frances seems to be crawing at the moment Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Weakening BabyCat   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Jamiewx   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Weakening jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Weakening danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Weakening HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Weakening jaybythebay   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:01 PM
. * * Folks, please... LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Folks, please... Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:09 AM
. * * hey jason..and Phil and NHC bobbi   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:20 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:30 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:42 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:09 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:18 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:26 AM
. * * Re: recon john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:39 AM
. * * Re:sats john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:54 AM
. * * Re:sats jth off   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:56 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:58 AM
. * * Re:sats bck jth off   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:59 AM
. * * Re:sats bck Humanriff   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:02 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:04 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:01 AM
. * * Re:sats bck danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:05 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:06 AM
. * * Re:sats bck danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:11 AM
. * * Re:sats bck john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:15 AM
. * * Re:Orange danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:25 AM
. * * Re:Orange john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:37 AM
. * * Re:NWS Miami update danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:34 AM
. * * Re:NWS Key West update danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:43 AM
. * * Re:NWS Key West update john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:46 AM
. * * Re:LSU danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:49 AM
. * * Re:LSU john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:52 AM
. * * Re:LSU Becky1322   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:15 AM
. * * Re:LSU danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:06 AM
. * * Re: sat john03   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:15 AM
. * * Re: sat danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:35 AM
. * * Re:LSU scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:11 AM
. * * Re:LSU 666   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:03 AM
. * * Re:LSU LadyStorm   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:09 AM
. * * Frances continues to weaken berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:17 AM
. * * Re: Frances continues to weaken danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:25 AM
. * * Following Lowest Pressure berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:36 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure firestar_1   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:14 AM
. * * Track WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure LeftOrlando   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:43 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure LakeCountySeat   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:41 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure rmbjoe1954   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:49 AM
. * * Re: Just in Time danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Following Lowest Pressure scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:40 AM
. * * Subsidence W of Frances? berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:51 AM
. * * Is Frances a dud? Wxwatcher2   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:09 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? 52255225   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:53 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? RevUp   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? Rasvar   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? HanKFranK   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:05 AM
. * * Seems like they always....... Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Seems like they always....... Jeffmidtown   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Seems like they always....... DMFischer   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? 52255225   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? Rasvar   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:29 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? Ed in Va   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Is Frances a dud? maxwellincfl   Fri Sep 03 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Color Sat pic danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:55 AM
. * * Re: LSU Sat pic danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:05 AM
. * * Re: Frances continues to weaken scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:29 AM
. * * Re: Frances continues to weaken scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:22 AM
. * * Re:Dud danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:12 AM
. * * Re: ridge fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:34 AM
. * * Re:Orange Timothy   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:30 AM
. * * Re:sats bck scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:18 AM
. * * Ivan and Frances Bloodstar   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:21 AM
. * * Re:sats bck fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:20 AM
. * * Tropical storm Ivan Matt033   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:33 AM
. * * Re:sats bck Rabbit   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:06 AM
. * * Re:sats danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:56 AM
. * * Re:sats danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Satellites danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:27 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:05 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Maximum Winds fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:15 AM
. * * Re: hey jason..and Phil and NHC HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... jth offline   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:00 AM
. * * Re: think comeback..... fred08   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:17 AM
. * * Re: think comeback..... Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:23 AM
. * * Re: think comeback..... 666   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:59 AM
. * * Re: Colleen... danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Colleen... Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Satellites danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Satellites Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:58 AM
. * * I was wrong.... it is moving as forecast by NHC Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:38 AM
. * * Re: I was wrong.... it is moving as forecast by NHC Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:47 AM
. * * 0304Z Vortex message danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... jth offline   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:35 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... HCRay   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... FromUpNorth   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... HCRay   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:14 AM
. * * salt lick HanKFranK   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Re: salt lick Clark   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: salt lick Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: salt lick Clark   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:00 AM
. * * Re: salt lick bobbi   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Stewart's Discussion Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Folks, please... Todd   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Weakening JG   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Weakening Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:32 PM
. * * I am here... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Weakening jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:57 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 73 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Thread views: 29394

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center