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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
      Fri Sep 03 2004 12:45 PM

12:20pm ET - Afternoon everybody - We're all wondering the same thing we see; will Frances re-strengthen? I am not a professional meteorologist. I was a weather forecaster with the Air Force and I am now working on my degree in meteorology; that said, I've noted some professional meteorologist in this forum and they need to be heard (read). There are and will continue to be diverse points of view, but the boys & girls that bury their noses in these models and there are a few know their craft well. Let's move on: The topic is will this baby regain Category 4? It may. The best way to speak to this is a scorecard - 1) Will it restrengthen? - Gulf stream checks in at 30 to 31C (86 to 88F), shear tendency has decreased by 5 knots, and she continues to have excellent outflow except on the west side, will remain over water at least another 36 hours. 2) Weakening - 300mb shear remains between 15 & 20 knots directly over the system, with upper ridge axis to her SW, inner eye has become disrupted, dry air intrusion is noted on current water vapor imagery as of 1615Z impinging on the CDO on her west and southwest side, some land interaction, slow movement which tends to cool sea surfaces. Category 4? Possible, given how much time we're looking at prior to landfall, we all remember Charley, but the structure of Frances is different now. Category 3? Likely, if she reconsolidates and an eye is re-established prior to landfall. Category 2? 100 knots is nothing to sneeze out, and if the core can't recover, you're looking at a wind field that will continue to expand and what could be sustained hurricane force winds north of the eye for in excess of 24 hours; no picnic if you live on the beach. As for Ivan; he's a long way off, and too many variables to even guess where he's going, but he is on the southern track and a ridge is along for the ride with him. Beyond 5 days it will depend on where that shortwave trough is, and it's longwave cousin. If the shortwave bypasses the system, say hello to Gulf of Mexico; but that's at least 7 days out and there are no models that reliable beyond 5. Next week is the peak of the hurricane season climatologically.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic MikeCAdministrator Fri Sep 03 2004 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic bill06   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Center moving towards SE Abaco Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:14 PM
. * * Vortex Decoding Tool Londovir   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Decoding Tool Terra   Fri Sep 03 2004 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Decoding Tool Cathy   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Decoding Tool Bev   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Decoding Tool gailmm   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Decoding Tool Ed in Va   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Decoding Tool Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Center moving towards SE Abaco digitalssinc   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:19 PM
. * * Melbourne Discussion Jamiewx   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:34 PM
. * * Panhandle Weather this weekend.. wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Panhandle Weather this weekend.. digitalssinc   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Panhandle Weather this weekend.. wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Panhandle Weather this weekend.. concerned   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Panhandle Weather this weekend.. HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Panhandle Weather this weekend.. wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Panhandle Weather this weekend.. Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:15 PM
. * * Update WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic hbdj5   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic crm9501   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:29 PM
. * * frances musol   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic Clark   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic ShanaTX   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic Rasvar   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic mbfly   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Movement WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Movement AdmittedHacker   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Movement mbfly   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Movement AdmittedHacker   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:46 PM
. * * 5:00 Update SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 Update Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:01 PM
. * * Local update WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Movement SirCane   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Movement W javlin   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Movement scottsvb1   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... seaturtle   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... DroopGB31   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... eligrace   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... StormHound   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... eligrace   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:38 PM
. * * Mike posted a new Heading.... Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... Matt033   Fri Sep 03 2004 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... AgentB   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... PFSThunder   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... Chopper Dave   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... unregistered   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Coming back??? wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Charleston question Anton Ross   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:16 PM
. * * not what we needed Alex.K   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:12 PM
. * * Re: not what we needed DroopGB31   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: not what we needed Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... AgentB   Fri Sep 03 2004 04:01 PM
. * * Pressure Drop Jamiewx   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:55 PM
. * * Wind Field Jamiewx   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:39 PM
. * * Current Conditions WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Movement Ed in Va   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic PutnamHannah   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic andy1tom   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic DroopGB31   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic Clark   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic andy1tom   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic TinaLee   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic GaryC   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic andy1tom   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:25 PM
. * * exploded Alex.K   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:24 PM
. * * Re: exploded Rasvar   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:00 PM
. * * Re: exploded doug   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: exploded LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:10 PM
. * * Re: exploded AgentB   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: exploded eligrace   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:29 PM
. * * Re: exploded alizzabeth   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:37 PM
. * * Re: exploded LI Phil   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: exploded Rabbit   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:24 PM
. * * pressure schmessure rickonboat   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:36 PM
. * * I was... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: I was... Jeffmidtown   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:39 PM
. * * Hurricane hunters found an eye Bloodstar   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic Unregisterd User   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic PAULA   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic khw   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Kruz   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit LONNY307   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit doug   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:31 AM
. * * Frances and Ivan WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:46 AM
. * * Doug check out the Miami long range radar loop Frank P   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:46 AM
. * * Re: Doug check out the Miami long range radar loop doug   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:13 AM
. * * C40 clyde w.   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:20 AM
. * * Re: C40 Justin in Miami   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:24 AM
. * * Re: C40 HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:27 AM
. * * Re: C40 Justin in Miami   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:27 AM
. * * Re: C40 BillD   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:49 AM
. * * Strengthening Jamiewx   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening Rabbit   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening Jamiewx   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Strengthening Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Strengthening rickonboat   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:07 PM
. * * Strengthening or not? LoisCane   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Strengthening schmoo   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Strengthening StormHound   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Strengthening Rabbit   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Strengthening Rabbit   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:03 PM
. * * Fox news in the hunter MrSpock   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Rabbit   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:38 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit AgentB   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:54 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:55 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit wezman1   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Rabbit   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit GlasserinD   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit cjzydeco   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:18 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit doug   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Rabbit   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit clyde w.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Lakeland Gal   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:51 PM
. * * ft lauderdale wind gust was in a feeder band squall LoisCane   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:18 PM
. * * Re: ft lauderdale wind gust was in a feeder band squall BillD   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:23 PM
. * * WEST? SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:47 PM
. * * Re: WEST? Frank P-jr   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:52 PM
. * * Re: WEST? Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:05 PM
. * * Re: WEST? Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit DroopGB31   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Rabbit   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit andy1tom   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit andy1tom   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Terra   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:57 AM
. * * Local Update WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit andy1tom   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit MrSpock   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Saie   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Frances changing direction rickonboat   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit doug   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:26 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit mbfly   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit LadyStorm   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit maddiemae   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Bloodstar   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Hurricaned   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit doug   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Cathy   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Justin in Miami   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Tammy   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit AgentB   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit JaxBeachMan   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Rasvar   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit andy1tom   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit doug   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit andy1tom   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit doug   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:08 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Lakeland Gal   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Jamiewx   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit berrywr   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit clyde w.   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:01 PM
. * * MLB HLS Jamiewx   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:51 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS Bev   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:31 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS Tammy   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:35 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS alan   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:36 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS TinaLee   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:53 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS Colleen A.   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:31 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS RedFred9   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:50 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS ThirdRay   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS Rasvar   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:00 PM
. * * VIPIR... wxman007   Fri Sep 03 2004 03:00 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS Joe   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:10 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS edwardecfl   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS Clark   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:50 PM
. * * eye Alex.K   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:06 PM
. * * Info available on DTV in Tampa and Orlando. Rasvar   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS andy1tom   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:52 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS Wxwatcher2   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:45 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS alan   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:49 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS MrSpock   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:44 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:54 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS kirdona   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:15 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS andy1tom   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:02 PM
. * * Re: MLB HLS Tammy   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:07 PM
. * * reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now rickonboat   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:15 PM
. * * Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now HCW   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:22 PM
. * * Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now Storm Cooper   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:29 PM
. * * Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now DroopGB31   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:53 PM
. * * Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now Storm Cooper   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now jester   Fri Sep 03 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now Joe   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:45 PM
. * * Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now andy1tom   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:35 PM
. * * moving west??? or rebuilding on the west side LoisCane   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:22 PM
. * * Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now C.J.inNaples   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:21 PM
. * * Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit DroopGB31   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Lakeland Gal   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Kal   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:24 PM
. * * how unpredictable the tropics are!!! Rabbit   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Re: how unpredictable the tropics are!!! Daytonaman   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: how unpredictable the tropics are!!! Lakeland Gal   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit maxwellcfl   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit LadyStorm   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit palmetto   Fri Sep 03 2004 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit GaryC   Fri Sep 03 2004 10:11 AM
. * * Ivan will be a big hurricane Cycloneye   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:54 AM
. * * Models Jamiewx   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:37 AM
. * * Re: Frances Weakens a Bit Justin in Miami   Fri Sep 03 2004 09:37 AM

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