thoughts on frances:
frances is shearing itself. the neat lockstep of upper features supporting the storm is out of whack now, with frances own upper high extending sw of the storm, feeding its own outflow jet back into its nw quadrant. the weakening steering earlier forecast by some of the globals looks like it was on to something.. frances isn't moving much this evening. this is beyond my meteorological level.. but i've got an idea that frances is looking for an outflow hookup to the west.. rather than having it jacked back over it's western side. too stumped to make a movement call other than the official.. wnw/nw line. slowly. if it doesn't get to moving in a few hours upwelling will come into play.. but it would take a hell of a long time over the ~30C waters near the bahamas.
most reasonable thing to predict is a static intensity and landfall in lower brevard county tomorrow night.
a tad stronger than the official, slightly to the north. i'm reckoning it will cross the lesser antilles as a major hurricane early tuesday, from this far out. modeling has me thinking this is another threat to the southeastern u.s. late next week.. highly dependent on intensity (a weak storm will continue west) and contact with the islands (hitting any of the larger caribbean islands will knock the strength down). at this far out it's just a hunch.
97L: nrl no longer tracking, may be absorbed into a trough. system is still quite convectively active and over warm waters.. suspect it may still develop, though not as certain as yesterday.
oh, lets just get it out now. globals are developing the wave set to come off tonight/tomorrow behind ivan. gfs is favoring a more northerly track at this point, but until it comes off we won't have much to go on.
frances' weakening is the typical story with longtrackers approaching the u.s. in recent years.. but it may be too good to be true. vigilance until it comes in. may lose some more punch, may start inching back up as steering returns.
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