The weakening seems to be due to the dry air west and north-west of the storm which is being sucked in on the west side, which is why S. Fl has been seeing fewer rain bands than one might expect. Once that clears out a little more - ~ < 24 hours - if the storm is still over water it will have the potential to intensify.
The things I don't like about the official forecast tracks:
1. People tend to put to much faith in them, and then get hammered. This is not the NHC's fault, but a poor explanation by people presenting them.
2. The models could be split (as earlier today) with, for example, a group showing north and a group showing west. The official track (usually) averages those and presents a NW track. To me that is non-sensical: if no models project it is going in that direction, why average it to that? It is like saying "there are either 3 people in the room or 1 person in the room" and then projecting that there are 2 people in the room. Obviously all the modelling is full of error, but don't compound the error. One solution would be to keep the probablity graphics, but remove the center track, or perhaps don't make it a line of points track, but a wide path.
3. People also don't seem to appreciate the uncertainties, particularly with stalled or slow moving storms. For example, if Frances stalls out there for 24 horus, the assumptions showing it moving as projected today will have changed. So, people preparing based on that may be disappointed.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 43527
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center