Not really much to add on the Frances front. Landfall looks like it should come sometime in the wee morning hours, probably at or very close to the current intensity of 105mph and just a bit north of West Palm Beach. Satellite representation has gotten a bit better, but not strikingly so.
The differences between the NHC and HPC from two days ago are starting to play out in terms of what the storm does after landfall. NHC, going off of the models, had been calling for a path over land; HPC, going off of actual analysis and understanding the errors in what the models were analyzing, called for a more westerly path that would skirt almost the entire Fl. panhandle. Now, the NHC has shifted towards that as well. (And yes, I've canceled plans to chase Frances in the panhandle.)
In any event, rainfall amounts are going to be torrential with this storm - though TWC is a bit out to lunch in suggesting flooding rains in Maine with this one by Wednesday. It'll still be near north Florida on Tuesday.
Ivan continues to get better organized, with an eye-type feature appearing earlier today. I threw out a path over Hispaniola yesterday to some friends, and that may well play out in five days. It's one to watch by the middle of the week as it approaches the islands. They're sending a G-IV out there on Monday to sample the environment, even before an actual recon gets out there, which I think is a very good thing.
More if conditions warrant...otherwise, it's time to hunker down and watch the storm as it crosses the state.
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