Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic

Been a while. We unexpectedly lost my mom last Wed. so I didn't pay much attention to anything (including Frances - mom's middle name btw - outside of what they showed on Fox, CNN and The Weather Channel.) I'm glad to see the site is back up and will probably make some kind of small donation in the next few weeks (and certainly encourage anyone who hasn't yet to also do so).

I have to disagree with scottsvb though the pages are still loading too slow to go back and see when he posted it. He mentioned the NHC was basically on track, but Ivan's position is some 200 miles S/SW of where it was supposed to be. For anyone with Accupro access, make sure you read Bastardi's comment and watch his tropical video today. He takes on the GFS/GFDL in favor of the UKMet and Canadian solutions and likes a landfall between the mouth of the Mississippi River and Apalachacola. The 12z CMC model wants the system near the AL/FL border in the 120-144 hour (5-6 days) time frame. I do agree with Scott that chances are there won't be a Cat-5 hit on the US. But we can't rule out 2, 3 or 4 which seem likely if not inevitable. My call? I think that Ivan landfalls somewhere between Gulfport, MS and Seaside, FL early next week (Tuesday perhaps) as a Cat 2 or 3. All of the above of course assumes that Ivan will pass south of Jamaica and more westerly than what the NHC/GFS alliance is feeding us for now. They have shifted their track farther and farther west since classification and that's likely to continue.

And a special note for rickonboat: Rick, you're not getting a Cat 5, but if you don't see some effects from Ivan, I'll donate $10 to the site in your name.

Finally, I had to laugh at the Michael Moore comment above. Moore tends to follow the smoke moreso than guys like the rock readers (doomsday hurricane predicted for Tampa Bay last blue moon) though his conclusions are sometimes dubious. Nonetheless, it appears our current administration is as guilty of pimping and following conspiracy theories as any

. One day the American public will wake up and stop electing such inept presidents (Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, Nixon, Johnson, etc.) and return to the days of at least guys like Ike and Truman if not ole TR. Yeah I know this part is going to be deleted, but what the hey - it's been a while.

Steve

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