11PM Ivan is holding at a category 4 level for now. The track remains very similar to the 5PM. The current forecast track has it skirting along the west coast of Florida into the big bend, but again even a slight error really can change this.
The good news is that shear is expected to develop so we may have another storm that weakens right before any landfall, but the otuflow is so good right now, it may not weaken as much as I'd hope. Intensity forecasts are by far the most prone to error, and this will have to be watched.
Original Update Hurricane Ivan is back to Category 4, after an impressive run earlier today as a category 5.
It's expected to fluctuate in intensity, and again, the forecast track has moved a bit to the left. However the longer term forecast is still quite uncertain. It will be interesting to watch the model trends.
It may be going through a double eyewall cycle, which would explain the weaker winds. This would allow it to restrengthen once again once this cycle is over.
XML Current Storm Positions are now available at this link.
Also, Tropical depression 10 has already came and went, it's now has dissipated.
More to come later today.
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