After the flips and flops and the left/right/lefts of the last two storms, I decided I was going to put a binder together with all the information that's out there i.e., model maps, tracks, discussions, etc. for a quick and easy reference guide. Does this make me a total storm geek? Of course. Do I care? Absolutely not. It's a lot easier to look up information in a binder than to go back and try to find info from 2 days ago on the computer.
I was not surprised to see the track shift back to the east because Stacey Stewart wrote this in his 5AM Discussion this morning, in which he talks about how the main difference in the models is how they handle the development and future track of a mid- to upper level-low currently near 34N 48W:
Quote: WATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LOW IS STRONGER THAN ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. HOWEVER...THE MODEL THAT INITIALIZED THE LOW THE BEST AT 00Z WAS NOGAPS. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL...ON BRINGING IVAN ACROSS WEST-DENTRAL CUBA AND THEN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UKMET MODEL REMAINS THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER...WHILE THE GFS IS STILL THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING THEIR TRACKS TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN NOW TAKES IVAN ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA IN 96-120 HOURS.. GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AT 96- AND 120 HR.
With the exception of the 2pm Accuweather projected path, the track has not made any dramatic shifts to the left OR the right since 5pm Wednesday night.
I'm not a met and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but based on several things I just can't see a track that doesn't having it make landfall somewhere along the west coast of Florida or just brushing it and moving up towards the Big Bend area. I can see either possibility happening, depending upon when/where/if Ivan makes a NW/N/NE turn, but I just don't see it as an AL/MS/LA storm.
Of course, this is just my unedumacated opinion, but I'm willing to stick my head out there and say, "Yes, this is a FLORIDA storm, more than likely following a polar path (south to north) and someone between the Big Bend and the Keys is going to get brushed or a direct hit and to go a little further, I'll say somewhere between Ft. Lauderdale and Cedar Key." If I'm wrong I'm wrong, if I'm right, I'll slap myself silly. All of this of course, means that Ivan will take a sharp left turn and head towards Mexico for some tacos.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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