This mornings comments in Melbournes forecast discussion are insightful:
MON-THU...TPC TRACK GUIDANCE...NOT TO MENTION 00Z GLOBAL SUITE... IS OMINOUS FOR FLORIDA...ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE NOT YET CERTAIN...AFTER ABOUT H72...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT BREACH IN THE DLM RIDGE DEVELOPING RIGHT AROUND THE LONGITUDE OF FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ERN GOMEX. THE GFS/UKM/ECM AND GFS-BASED TROPICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A PENINSULAR FLORIDA LANDFALL WITH THE CNDN GEM SHIFTING EAST CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA...LEAVING THE NOGAPS AS SOMEWHAT OF A WESTERN OUTLIER. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT...ALTHOUGH STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM ANY POTENTIAL EFFECTS...SW/SOUTH FL IS PRETTY MUCH BRACKETED BY GUIDANCE...AND THUS THE CWA IS LOOKING AT PSBL EFFECTS FROM YET ANOTHER MAJOR HURRICANE. AGAIN...EXACT TRACK/ INTENSITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT WITH IVAN PASSING AS CLOSE TO THE AREA AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...CWA MAY BE LOOKING AT UNCHARTED TERRITORY AS FAR AS FLOODING EFFECTS ALONE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER. SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY WEAKENED STATE OF SO MANY TREES AROUND THE AREA... AND STRUCTURES WHICH ARE ALREADY SUFFERING ROOF AND OTHER DAMAGE WOULD ONLY MAGNIFY POTENTIAL WIND EFFECTS. WE WILL SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 20401
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center