The intense eyewall of CAT 5 Ivan is just south of the capital city of Kingston Jamaica at 11:15 pm EDT/0315 UTC. This is a catastrophic event we are watching and it will result in large loss of life. If you collect satellite images of tropical cyclones it's time to capture images of Ivan now because he is the perfect storm at the moment.
I forecast a landfall of a CAT 3 hurricane along the SW coast of Florida between Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay on Tuesday September 14, 2004, with a bulls eye on Siesta Key. Then we will see an inland track towards the NNE-NE possibly once again impacting the Orlando metro area. Statistically a second landfalling major tropical cyclone into Charlotte Harbor twice in one season is remote but the shallow estuary will be impacted in some negative way. A right turn into the SW coast due to speed divergence much like Charley is probable with Ivan, but Ivan will move slower then Charley. I forecast Ivan to be only a CAT 3 at landfall due to developing SW shear in the region.
By the way I can't ever remember a "major" hurricane landfalling in the big bend region of north Florida.
Take Care, Thomas F. Giella Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster Plant City, FL
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 26936
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center