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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: Thomas predicts landfall at Siesta Key
      Sat Sep 11 2004 01:13 AM

In looking at the records, I cannot recall a hurricane of any significance making landfall between Apalachicola and near Cedar Key since before the mid-1800s. That's not to say it can't happen -- you can take the approach that they are due, or take the approach that it's not likely to happen still.

NOGAPS is the furthest west with the storm, but something troubles me about the past few runs of the model. It develops a "child low" in the wake of Ivan in the central Caribbean -- essentially, a small piece of energy from Ivan remains behind as the storm moves away and sits over the central Caribbean Sea. I can't buy that happening, and I wonder if that has any impact on the track forecast. That is beyond my knowledge, unfortunately.

Ivan's jog to the west today was likely caused a bit by the asymmetry of the storm - convective drag. I can't go into more detail about it though as I don't full understand the mechanics behind it, however, but that appears to be one of the causes.

Intensity - don't know if I've ever seen a storm so round and robust as Ivan. I don't know how much longer it can keep it up, to tell the truth, as storms like this rarely stay this well defined for that long. Outflow is excellent SW counterclockwise to N and good in the remainder of the storm. It's just so well-defined as a storm. Recon should be out there shortly to give us a center fix -- will we break 920? My bets are on yes. The flight-level winds should begin/continue to respond to the drop in pressure beginning about now.

Track -- more concerned about parts of the peninsula today, particularly north of Tampa, but not willing to change my projections yet. Anyone from Pensacola to Key West needs to watch this one, as timing and wobbles may be critical in the long run. I still believe the area between Panama City and St. Marks is under the greatest threat, but due to slight weaknesses in the subtropical ridge and the position of the eastern trough, I'm not as confident in that as yesterday. The models I trust, though, are still within that narrower region...so we'll see how things play out.

Intensity -- the storm is more than likely a category 5 at this time, and depending upon eyewall replacement cycles will likely remain at such until it crosses Cuba. That could mean a day or two with a category 5 hurricane on our hands. I do not anticipate this storm remaining that strong after crossing Cuba nor restrengthening after doing so. Depending on the ultimate track, a low-end 3 to low-end 4 is what I am thinking at landfall. A track towards SW Florida or the central Panhandle is more likely at the higher end of that, whereas a track towards the western Florida peninsula is likely on the lower end of that. Shear is forecast to increase, but it has been forecast to increase for some time now yet has not done so. To tell the truth, I do not anticipate for it to do so to a large degree -- this storm is, in effect, controlling its own environment to some degree. And, once the storm rounds the base of the ridge and accelerates a bit towards landfall, the effective shear out of the S/SW may well be canceled out to some degree by the forward motion. Also of note is the position of the loop current in the Gulf and the recovery of the waters since Charley (as Frances stayed very near to shore and will likely have a minor impact on Ivan as it is)...to what degree they have recovered, particularly below the surface, and to what extent the loop current may be present in the eastern Gulf will control the intensity towards landfall.

Forward motion: the system should begin to slow a bit more once it passes Jamaica and take a day and a half to two days or so from now to inch towards Cuba. From there, the storm should slowly cross the island and gain some forward speed -- albeit not nearly as much as Charley -- as it passes northward towards Florida. Landfall in the four and a half to five day time period -- Wednesday -- is what I am looking at for right now. A track inland further south will likely bring the storm in sooner of course, perhaps as early as early Tuesday or even late Monday. Tending later, though.

And, as always...take everything you read besides the official forecast with a grain of salt. This represents my opinions only and, of course, I don't represent FSU or the FSU Superensemble in any way. By the way...the fee for getting access to the hurricane track forecasts was made known to me today...$30,000/year. Gulp.

In any case, let's see whatthis storm does in the next 36 hours -- hopefully by then, we'll know much more as to where it is going.

No comment about the "other" hurricanes!

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane MikeCAdministrator Sat Sep 11 2004 01:13 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane jannette   Sat Sep 11 2004 05:20 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane Chrissy in PA   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:23 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:28 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane Duncan   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:34 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane DroopGB31   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:39 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane mikeG   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:39 AM
. * * Re: ivan mikeG   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:25 AM
. * * Speaking of Hurricanes Kdubs   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane jmm045   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:45 PM
. * * Re: Satellite Eclipse danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Satellite Eclipse Jeffmidtown   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Satellite Eclipse danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane daddyrabbit4570   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane MrSpock   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane Jeffmidtown   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane mud1967   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane kelcot   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane Tazmanian93   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane kelcot   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:26 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane Terra   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane Frank P   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane meto   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane RevUp   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane kelcot   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Why the more west movement? Justin in Miami   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Why the more west movement? RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Why the more west movement? Frank P   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Thomas predicts landfall at Siesta Key WXMAN RICHIE   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Thomas predicts landfall at Siesta Key RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Thomas predicts landfall at Siesta Key Clark   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:13 AM
. * * Re: Why the more west movement? SirCane   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Why the more west movement? WeatherNLU   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane HMY   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:47 PM
. * * W/S Turn Colleen A.   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:28 AM
. * * Re: W/S Turn Second Shift   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:40 AM
. * * Re: W/S Turn SirCane   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:35 AM
. * * Re: W/S Turn Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: NOGAPS Fred08   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:48 AM
. * * Re: NOGAPS Clark   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:16 AM
. * * Canadian Shifts West too Frank P   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Canadian Shifts West too tom5r   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Canadian Shifts West too SirCane   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:13 AM
. * * Re: Canadian Shifts West too Clark   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Canadian Shifts West too InORLANDO   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:35 AM
. * * FSU Ensemble Colleen A.   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:28 AM
. * * Re: Canadian Shifts West too SirCane   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Canadian Shifts West too Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:32 AM
. * * Can My Nerves Get More Frayed??? Colleen A.   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:10 AM
. * * Re: Can My Nerves Get More Frayed??? danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:17 AM
. * * Re: Can My Nerves Get More Frayed??? Colleen A.   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Can My Nerves Get More Frayed??? jth offline   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:40 AM
. * * Re: Can My Nerves Get More Frayed??? Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:13 AM
. * * Re: Canadian Shifts West too Second Shift   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Canadian Shifts West too tom5r   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Canadian Shifts West too Londovir   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:51 AM
. * * Re: Canadian Shifts West too Clark   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:57 AM
. * * UKMET shifts west Clark   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:00 AM
. * * GFS shifts west too... Clark   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:30 AM
. * * Re: GFS shifts west too... danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:33 AM
. * * Re: GFS shifts west too... Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:32 AM
. * * New vortex out...& sat pic info Clark   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:40 AM
. * * Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info mikeG   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:47 AM
. * * Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info mikeG   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:55 AM
. * * Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:59 AM
. * * Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info mikeG   Sat Sep 11 2004 03:05 AM
. * * Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info BabyCat   Sat Sep 11 2004 03:11 AM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 05:04 AM
. * * Re: Recon rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 05:39 AM
. * * WV issues rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:10 AM
. * * Re: WV issues danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:45 AM
. * * Re: WV issues LadyStorm   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:44 AM
. * * Re: WV issues rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:56 AM
. * * Re: WV issues danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:19 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Fix Update danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:24 AM
. * * Re: Recon Renee   Sat Sep 11 2004 05:51 AM
. * * Re: Ivan and Dave danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:05 AM
. * * Re: Ivan and Dave Renee   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:10 AM
. * * Re: The Troff javlin   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:54 AM
. * * Re: The Troff MrSpock   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:17 AM
. * * Re: The Troff Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:24 AM
. * * Re: The Troff PFSThunder   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:23 AM
. * * Re: Recon jlauderdal   Sat Sep 11 2004 05:49 AM
. * * Re: Recon jannette   Sat Sep 11 2004 05:23 AM
. * * Re: Recon Info danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 05:35 AM
. * * Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info mikeG   Sat Sep 11 2004 03:07 AM
. * * Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info MikeG   Sat Sep 11 2004 03:09 AM
. * * Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info john03   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:57 AM
. * * Re: New vortex out...& sat pic info DroopGB31   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:46 AM
. * * Re: UKMET shifts west scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update BabyCat   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update Duncan   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:08 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update john03   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update bsnyder   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:17 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update Colleen A.   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:46 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:07 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update DroopGB31   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update Colleen A.   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update Londovir   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update BabyCat   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:14 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update HCW   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:15 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update mikeG   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:19 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:19 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:40 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update jth   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update Storm Cooper   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:21 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update Clark   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:17 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update BabyCat   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:17 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update jth   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:19 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:09 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update john03   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:58 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update jth   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:06 AM
. * * Re: if recon found..... john03   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:08 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:03 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update DroopGB31   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:07 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update john03   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Canadian Shifts West too Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Canadian Shifts West too tom5r   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:53 AM
. * * Re: recon john03   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Canadian Shifts West too Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:40 AM
. * * jamaica radio BabyCat   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:18 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane HCW   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane RevUp   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane Colleen A.   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane richiesurfs   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane SirCane   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane richiesurfs   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:23 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane SirCane   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane belleami   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:25 PM
. * * Ivan and Florida Jamiewx   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Florida Bev   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Florida BillD   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:14 AM
. * * Re: Ivan and Florida Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Ivan and Florida RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:34 AM
. * * Re: NOGAPS Fred08   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Ivan and Florida RevUp   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Florida danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane RevUp   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane belleami   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane belleami   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane ShanaTX   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:07 PM

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