As much as I think the NOGAPS may be right in a further westward track of Ivan, I must note that its track errors to 5 days were the worst of any of the major models with Frances and that, on the whole, it has not been one of the better performing dynamical models this (or in the past few) season(s).
NOGAPS track errors with Frances on the 4-5 day time scale were on the order of 350+ miles. NHC official track errors were on the order of 150 miles, for reference. Note that the NHC official and FSU Superensemble were both about 150mi off at 5 days -- the NHC primarily due to actual direction (and landfall point), the FSU Superensemble primarily due to timing (but nailing the landfall location). Similar results were seen with Charley. Just something to keep in mind here.
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