Quote: Its almost Friday evening and about 72-96 hours away from landfall due to uncertaincy in where abouts in the the state of florida it will make landfall. This what I came up with so far now on IVAN. First off I dont have a 3 day landfall yet cause I think its still just over 3 days out but Ill give ya a spot where abouts. Looking at all the data that I can recieve from model trends, physics of dynamic layers of the atmosphere up to 60 levels, weather balloon data over the region, buoy reports, recon data, and water vapor data trends I will try to make this forcast up to 3 days out. I find very interesting that this is going to be very simular to charley but bigger in size and though slower movement then him,,faster then Frances (but not by much). The expansion of the ridge off in the Bahamas has stoped. A trough coming off the Se U.S will help erode the western side of the ridge (though only some). In the first 60 hours expect a path over or very close to Jamaica to the Cayman Islands on Saturday evening then up NNW to N over Cuba on Sunday night. This is in agreement with the majority of the models but east of the Nogaps as it doesnt recoginize the end of the western expansion of the bahama ridge. By Monday morning I see Ivan as a Cat 3 just sw of Key west moving N. By later in the day a N to maybe just NNE path will ensue as he goes along the western side of the ridge to its east based on the data I have seen right now. I dont expect a big quicker turn like the Tropical suites say and what Charley did cause a stronger trough Charley had was digging already into the Panhandle and N Florida making a obvious turn to the NE. Bonnie was the best insight of what was going to happen when she went more ENE showing the trough had already hit the Panhandle by then. So after 72 hours? Well its still uncertain on where exactly it will make landfall, but I dont see this going past 85W, infact maybe not 84W. Somewhere around 25N and 83-84W by later Monday afternoon. Movement should begin the NNE direction during the afternoon or night time hours. So landfall in Tampa? Sarasota? Cedar Key and Big Bend? well sure but that is at least 84 hours away or more if farther up the coast. Models we all look at will change from run to run so we cant say we are going with a certain model, just that model run at that z time. The NHC has done well this year and so far with Ivan in the near terms. They will adjust postions with the data they recieve. Anyways this should be a cat 3 when it makes landfall on the west coast of florida although a path closer to the big bend will be maybe down to a cat 2. There will be cooler waters from Frances up near Tampa north and shear once it enters the gulf. One thing for sure that we all do know is that this will cause alot more wind and rain then Charley did in a expanded area as this is alot bigger in size then Charley. Also to note Miami to the keys and Naples isnt out of the woods yet. I do expect hurricane force winds in the southern Keys even if it does move on a path along 83-84W. Also Panama City- the Big Bend isnt out of the question yet since that is still 4-5 days out, especially the Big Bend. Anyways I will post more later and try to pinpoint a area of landfall on Saturday. scottsvb
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