Quote: I don't think the models figured in the strength of the mid-upper level ridge ahead of the trof. The trof hasn't pushed far enough south in the Gulf and Ivan hasn't moved far enough north, so I don't see what's going to lift Ivan northward anytime soon at this point in time. I'm expecting to see Ivan remain south of Cuba for next 48 hours.
I don't see anything in the next 48 hrs either, I'm referring to when it makes it to the GOM. The only thing that's going to affect it's track now is when it finds the weakness, or end, of the ridge to the east. Then, it will finally start that NW movement across Cuba and into the Gulf.
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