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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
      Sun Sep 12 2004 10:20 AM

3PM
Ivan is left of the NHC forecast a bit, and models are starting to trend more westward... again. It will be a long week folks.

2PM
Reports of heavy damage in the Cayman Islands as well as storm surge flooding.


Noon
Just in case you wanted a bit more dash of confusion, the global models have shifted a bit east around noon. I'll wait on the trends and the motion of the storm. And at the same time, the storm has wobbled left of the NHC's track a bit.


11AM
Tropical Storm watches are up for the Keys, the NHC track remains the same. Watch for the turn today, model guidance suggests it. Intensity forecasts are equally as problematic as the track.

There really isn't any overwhelming reason to doubt the NHC's track, although it hinges on a Northwestward turn later today.

Original Update
Hurricane Ivan this morning is Southwest of the Cayman islands, again going south of and west of the forecast track from yesterday. The slower motion also adds uncertainty, and pushes out the possible timeline. Assuming it does turn north, weíd be looking for a US landfall Wednesday night or Thursday.

Ivan is still sneaking westward now, and the slower and further west it goes the more of a monkey wrench it throws into the 5 day forecast. It already has thrown it off a bit. The cone of error due to itís slow movement is huge. Itís possible for the storm to get very close to the Yucatan now before it might make its northward turn (if at all).



Weíll be looking for gains in latitude today, for the future track of Ivan. Itís persistently been left of the track so far, and the trend may continue. However, once it does make a northward turn it could head back east some, so the entire Gulf still needs to watch it. Ivan is being a pain and I can almost guarantee a few more surprises before itís over with. Look for movement northward to begin before the day is over with, and if it does not, all bets are off.

Large storms on this scale (strong Category 5ish) tend to do what they want at these latitudes Ė ďignoringĒ climatology, so itís not too surprising that the forecasts have been off. Itís great news for Grand Cayman. But the slower the forward motion the more uncertainty where it will go. Today, the future track of Ivan is still shaky at best. But the most likely landfall remains the Florida Panhandle, but the confidence in that is so low at the moment, itís hardly worth mentioning.


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Event RelatedLinks
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
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AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South MikeCAdministrator Sun Sep 12 2004 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Elaine H   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South kelcot   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South kelcot   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Sam33   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Redbird   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South kelcot   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Mparker   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South kelcot   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South k___g   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South gumby/pensacola   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Wxwatcher2   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South anonymous   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Seele   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:31 PM
. * * Recon Frequency Question recmod   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:25 PM
. * * Quote from KSC chief Met on GOM storms.... Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Quote from KSC chief Met on GOM storms.... Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:35 PM
. * * Cayman Island Reports WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:46 PM
. * * Ivan SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Ivan waatcher   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Ivan CentralFlorida   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:49 PM
. * * Question SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Question 52255225   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Question ShaggyDude   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:00 PM
. * * Re: Question Wxwatcher2   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Question spook   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:56 PM
. * * I'm back...at least for a bit.... wxman007   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Re: I'm back...at least for a bit.... LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:09 PM
. * * Re: I'm back...at least for a bit.... dolphinscry   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:30 PM
. * * Re: I'm back...at least for a bit.... sullynole   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:16 PM
. * * Re: I'm back...at least for a bit.... wxman007   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:15 PM
. * * 12Z Euro shift west .... LA/MS line Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:25 PM
. * * Re: 12Z Euro shift west .... LA/MS line HMY   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:27 PM
. * * Jason SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Jason SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:22 PM
. * * Re: Jason Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Jason LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:19 PM
. * * Re: I'm back...at least for a bit.... tikibar   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: I'm back...at least for a bit.... LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: I'm back...at least for a bit.... wxman007   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:19 PM
. * * Interesting analysis in Birmingham AFD this afternoon Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Interesting analysis in Birmingham AFD this afternoon LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Interesting analysis in Birmingham AFD this afternoon tikibar   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:55 PM
. * * Trofs SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:59 PM
. * * Is Ivan Stalling??? recmod   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Interesting analysis in Birmingham AFD this afternoon SC Bill   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Interesting analysis in Birmingham AFD this afternoon tikibar   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:09 PM
. * * question from the peanut gallery clueless   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:17 PM
. * * Re: question from the peanut gallery HMY   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:23 PM
. * * From the endzone... LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:20 PM
. * * Re: From the endzone... hey phil LoisCane   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Re: From the endzone... andy1tom   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: From the endzone... Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:31 PM
. * * Re: From the endzone... andy1tom   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:36 PM
. * * Re: From the endzone... wxman007   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:44 PM
. * * Re: From the endzone... SirCane   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Re: From the endzone... Terra   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:01 PM
. * * Movement Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:09 PM
. * * Re: From the endzone... spook   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:04 PM
. * * 5pm Advisory scoop Jamiewx   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:45 PM
. * * Re: 5pm Advisory scoop AdmittedHacker   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Ivan SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Ivan MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Ivan MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:07 PM
. * * NEW THREAD! LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Ivan BillD   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:48 PM
. * * bill you just never give up do you? LoisCane   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Ivan pcb   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Ivan wxman007   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Ivan LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Ivan St. David   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Ivan mijk55   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Ivan St. David   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Ivan waatcher   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:40 PM
. * * GUYS, NEW THREAD! LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Ivan HMY   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:07 PM
. * * Re: From the endzone... tikibar   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:22 PM
. * * Re: From the endzone... Terry Johnson   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:35 PM
. * * Re: From the endzone... spook   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Interesting analysis in Birmingham AFD this afternoon Wxwatcher2   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:14 PM
. * * Re: I'm back...at least for a bit.... andy1tom   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:36 PM
. * * Re: I'm back...at least for a bit.... Tony   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: I'm back...at least for a bit.... andy1tom   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:06 PM
. * * From Thomas as of Midday Today WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:42 PM
. * * Re: From Thomas as of Midday Today Sadie   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:08 PM
. * * Re: From Thomas as of Midday Today 52255225   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:50 PM
. * * Re: From Thomas as of Midday Today doug   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Gumby/Pensacola   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Gumby/Pensacola   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Ivan 52255225   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South HMY   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Cathy   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South tikibar   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Gumby/Pensacola   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:00 PM
. * * north turn? waatcher   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Cayman mashing LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: north turn? waatcher   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South kelcot   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:01 PM
. * * Models Rabbit   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South DroopGB31   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Takingforever   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South kelcot   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South kelcot   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Elaine H   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South boxerhouse   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South k___g   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South LadyStorm   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South belleami   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:05 AM
. * * Re: The Trof javlin   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:38 AM
. * * The Turn? SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:47 AM
. * * Re: The Turn? javlin   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:10 PM
. * * Ivan and Texas SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Texas Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Texas LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Texas Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Texas 52255225   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Texas Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Texas mikeG   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Texas mikeG   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Texas mikeG   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Eyewall ShaggyDude   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Texas kelcot   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:43 PM
. * * UpDownLeftRight Turningforever   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:47 PM
. * * URL for models waatcher   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: URL for models MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Texas LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Texas kelcot   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Texas 52255225   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and Texas k___g   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:27 PM
. * * By the way... SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:50 AM
. * * Re: By the way... MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:01 PM
. * * Re: By the way... MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:08 PM
. * * Re: By the way... HMY   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:12 PM
. * * Re: By the way... rd522525   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:23 PM
. * * Re: By the way... MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:22 PM
. * * Re: By the way... Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:11 PM
. * * Re: By the way... MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:18 PM
. * * Re: The Turn? scottsvb1   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:48 AM
. * * Re: The Turn? rd522525   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:12 PM
. * * Re: The Turn? LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:22 PM
. * * Re: The Turn? scottsvb1   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:34 PM
. * * Hope its east of Biloxi, sorry AL coast and FL Panhandle Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Hope its east of Biloxi, sorry AL coast and FL Panhandle Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Hope its east of Biloxi, sorry AL coast and FL Panhandle LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:55 PM
. * * From Tampa 12:57 Discussion Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:55 PM
. * * Scott SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:09 PM
. * * O/T but weather related question KimB   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South KC   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South HMY   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South jamserve   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South CentralFlorida   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Rasvar   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South BeachBum   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South LadyStorm   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Rasvar   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South zim01   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South jamserve   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South k___g   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South recmod   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South LadyStorm   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Wxwatcher2   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South GuppieGrouper   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South spook   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South andy1tom   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South rd522525   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:02 AM
. * * ivan heading for the yucatan? lois/bobbi   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:05 AM
. * * Re: ivan heading for the yucatan? Sadie   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Re: ivan heading for the yucatan? recmod   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:23 AM
. * * Re: ivan heading for the yucatan? LadyStorm   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: ivan heading for the yucatan? andy1tom   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:39 AM
. * * Re: ivan heading for the yucatan? zim01   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:44 AM
. * * Re: ivan heading for the yucatan? SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:37 AM
. * * Re: ivan heading for the yucatan? rd522525   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:08 AM
. * * Re: ivan heading for the yucatan? spook   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:15 AM
. * * Track SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Track spook   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South spook   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South Seele   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:49 AM

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