The sat pics show well the trough that is EXPECTED to cause the shift in track, but since there is little data in storms of this magnitude and size, forecasting those turns becomes much more difficult, a la Gilbert. That trough is the one that has received a lot of mention from the various forecasters and those of us on this board. I wish I could nail it down, but don't feel confident trying to. I'll leave that to the NHC and the mets on here. The key is, if this is to turn, the reason is on that pic, and the other sat pics don't show that nearly as well as does the water vapor loop.
It would be nice if wherever this hits, there could be a strong consensus soon, so that anyone in the path can have the proper time to prepare. I think that is one of the more frustrating things.
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