A met told me when I was in high school, to be careful not to put all of your trust in a model. Of course, back then, the 2 models were the LFM and NGM. The LFM was put out to pasture years ago, and the NGM should be. They all have biases, and the nogaps in other years has been pretty bad. It also tends to be the furthest west model in general. Having said that, forecasts have shifted leftward, but I find its solution dubious because it is the outlier at this point.
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