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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Models
      Sun Sep 12 2004 08:20 PM

A met told me when I was in high school, to be careful not to put all of your trust in a model. Of course, back then, the 2 models were the LFM and NGM. The LFM was put out to pasture years ago, and the NGM should be. They all have biases, and the nogaps in other years has been pretty bad. It also tends to be the furthest west model in general. Having said that, forecasts have shifted leftward, but I find its solution dubious because it is the outlier at this point.

Edited by MrSpock (Sun Sep 12 2004 08:21 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ivan to Know Where it Goes MikeCAdministrator Sun Sep 12 2004 08:20 PM
. * * Ivan, Ivan, Ivan Clark   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes Cocoa Beach   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes FLHotti   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes Breeezy   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes captgene   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes captgene   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes Jultime   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:52 PM
. * * Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:58 PM
. * * Interesting comment from a New Orleans Met on the FSU SE Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Interesting comment from a New Orleans Met on the FSU SE Clark   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Interesting comment from a New Orleans Met on the FSU SE Marknole   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Interesting comment from a New Orleans Met on the FSU SE jth   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Interesting comment from a New Orleans Met on the FSU SE danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes KJJBCr   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes Sadie   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes TAZRACER   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Something to consider.... wxman007   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... Wxwatcher2   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... RevUp   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... Daytonaman   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... Gumby/Pensacola   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:00 PM
. * * WISHCASTING Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:10 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING Gumby/Pensacola   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:24 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:36 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:43 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING BillD   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:31 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:38 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING BillD   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:01 PM
. * * WHAT THE HE_ _! SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:56 PM
. * * Re: WHAT THE HE_ _! BillD   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:07 PM
. * * By the way... SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:14 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:48 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:56 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:01 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING KC   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:07 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING RevUp   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:56 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:55 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:29 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING andy1tom   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:57 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING RevUp   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:04 PM
. * * Re: WISHCASTING Terra   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:11 PM
. * * N'awlens Not Evacuating ... Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:26 PM
. * * Recon Question recmod   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:34 PM
. * * Re: Recon Question BillD   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Recon Question MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Recon Question BillD   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Recon Question danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Recon Question HCW   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Recon Question KJJBCr   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:05 PM
. * * Models Terra   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Models andy1tom   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Models KJJBCr   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Models sullynole   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:22 PM
. * * atmosphere MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:17 PM
. * * Re: atmosphere GuppieGrouper   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:22 PM
. * * Re: atmosphere MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Models dani   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:13 PM
. * * Predictions WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Predictions rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Predictions HMY   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Predictions GuppieGrouper   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Predictions Terra   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:46 PM
. * * Eye Replacement? SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Eye Replacement? SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Predictions rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Predictions Terra   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Predictions ShaggyDude   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Predictions ShaggyDude   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Predictions MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Predictions ShaggyDude   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Predictions MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Predictions Breeezy   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Predictions WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Predictions LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Predictions clueless   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:48 PM
. * * Re: Predictions ShaggyDude   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Predictions LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Predictions GainesvilleGuest   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Predictions ShaggyDude   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Predictions rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:06 PM
. * * Re: Predictions ShaggyDude   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Vortex danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Vortex LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Vortex rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Vortex ShaggyDude   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Predictions MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:06 PM
. * * Latest Recon dani   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Latest Recon danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Latest Recon Unregistered   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Latest Recon scottsvb1   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Latest Recon MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Latest Recon rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Latest Recon MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Latest Recon spook   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:34 PM
. * * Umm... LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Predictions KJJBCr   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Predictions Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Predictions ShaggyDude   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Predictions clueless   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Predictions Steve   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Predictions Breeezy   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Predictions sullynole   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Predictions Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:49 PM
. * * Cudo's to FOX NEWS Wxwatcher2   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Cudo's to FOX NEWS dani   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Cudo's to FOX NEWS Terra   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Cudo's to FOX NEWS Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Cudo's to FOX NEWS Terra   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Cudo's to FOX NEWS TAZRACER   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Cudo's to FOX NEWS Kdubs   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Cudo's to FOX NEWS LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:46 PM
. * * 11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:50 PM
. * * Re: 11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before DroopGB31   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:15 PM
. * * Re: 11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before CentralFlorida   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:44 PM
. * * Re: 11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before dolphinscry   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:10 PM
. * * Re: 11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: 11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:01 PM
. * * NEW THREAD! LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:03 PM
. * * Re: 11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before TAZRACER   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:00 PM
. * * Re: 11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before Jeffmidtown   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Models MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Models Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Models danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Another historic tropical week ahead perhaps.... Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:46 PM
. * * Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring TheElNino   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:52 PM
. * * Re: Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring Steve   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring SirCane1   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring andy1tom   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring ShaggyDude   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:10 PM
. * * Re: Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring ShaggyDude   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring meto   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Major Eyewall Replacement Occurring SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Models sullynole   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Recon Question KJJBCr   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Recon Question Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:04 PM
. * * Check out this picture of Gilbert from LSU earth scan labs... teal61   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Recon Question Nolefan   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Recon Question MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Recon Question BillD   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Recon Question MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:48 PM
. * * Re: N'awlens Not Evacuating ... Terra   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:34 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... Gumby/Pensacola   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... Daytonaman   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:02 PM
. * * rumor? waatcher   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:58 PM
. * * Re: rumor? MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:59 PM
. * * Re: rumor? waatcher   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:07 PM
. * * Re: rumor? MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... KJJBCr   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:36 PM
. * * Charter member of the JK fan club? LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Charter member of the JK fan club? wxman007   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Charter member of the JK fan club? SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Charter member of the JK fan club? Orlando   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Charter member of the JK fan club? meto   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:59 PM
. * * Re: Charter member of the JK fan club? Wxwatcher2   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Charter member of the JK fan club? GuppieGrouper   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:06 PM
. * * TWC/Jason Kelly Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:04 PM
. * * Re: TWC/Jason Kelly wxman007   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:10 PM
. * * Re: TWC/Jason Kelly jthhome   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:15 PM
. * * Re: TWC/Jason Kelly wxman007   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:21 PM
. * * Re: TWC/Jason Kelly LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:12 PM
. * * Re: TWC/Jason Kelly BillD   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:18 PM
. * * Re: TWC/Jason Kelly LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:22 PM
. * * Re: TWC/Jason Kelly gonyen   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:13 PM
. * * Re: LSU -24C line danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:25 PM
. * * Re: LSU -24C line gonyen   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:34 PM
. * * Re: TWC/Jason Kelly MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:13 PM
. * * Re: TWC/Jason Kelly Redbird   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:23 PM
. * * site donation rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:55 PM
. * * NW or WNW? Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Charter member of the JK fan club? MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... BillD   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Something to consider.... Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:22 PM

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