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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL
Ivan Category 5 Again
      Sun Sep 12 2004 10:54 PM

3PM
Ivan has began its move more northwest now.

Tropical Depression #11 has formed east of the Leeward Islands, first advisory will be at 5PM

Noon Update

Ivan remains a category 5, and probably will for a little longer, but shear is forecast to increase so it may weaken later, back to a category 4. In any case the storm is expected to remain a major hurricane.

The tropical storm watch is still up for the Florida keys, as some of the extreme outer bands are even extending iinto South Florida.

Errors may be large in this forecast track!

Thanks Skeetobite



The track is similar to the previous NHC advisory, but a little more east.


10AM Update
This morning Ivan's track has been shifted left, cetered around the Alabama/Florida border. The cone of error extends westward to Central Louisana and Eastward to Florida's Big Bend. There is still enough uncertainty that the west coast of Florida needs to watch it as well. Nobody in the gulf is all clear yet, unfortunately. But the NHC's track is the most likely.

Also there is a tropical wave approaching the leeward islans of the Caribbean that may form into Tropical Depression Eleven later today.



Original Very Long Update
Hurricane Ivan is again a category 5 storm, Hurricane Hunter aircraft found an extremely violent eyewall in their latest pass, with hail and lightning (which is extremely rare for a hurricane of this strength) Maximum sustained winds are 160MpH and the track is still taking it toward the Panhandle, although closer to the Alabama border.

Still yet the certainty of the track and more so intensity when it nears is up for grabs. The system has not made a distinct northerly turn yet, it may clip the extreme western edge of Cuba, but with the "land avoidance" trait that Ivan has had (except for Grenada) I wouldn't be surprised if it were to go through the straits.



It will be a nervous next few days in the Gulf. But the best thing to do is be prepared if it were to head your way if you live along the Gulf coast. And keep an eye on the storm.

If it stays on the forecast track, inland will have flooding problems in areas like Georgia, and the Carolinas. More to come later.

Reposted from Clark E:

Ivan is currently finishing up an eyewall replacement cycle, as recon has recently reported just one, larger eyewall of 28 n. mi. in diameter. Satellite photos confirm this, as the eye became less distinct an hour or two ago, but has shown signs of reappearing in recent images. From here, another 6-12hr of consolidation can be expected followed by one last shot at restrengthening before a combination of factors -- interactions with Cuba, eyewall/internal system dynamics, and a weakened outflow channel to the NE -- result in slow but steady weakening entering the Gulf.

Right now, outflow is impressive in all quadrants but to the NW, where it is only fair. However, this has been the case for a day or two now, and we can all see what effect this has had on the storm -- not much. Last pressure was 917mb, while the height of the 700mb surface remains below 2400m...or over 600m below "normal." A 20% difference shows you how strong this storm is on the whole. A little bit of dry air appears to be impinging upon the storm on the north & northwest sides, but this is mainly a result of dry air off of Cuba than anything else.

Essentially, the dry air you see surrounding Ivan is a result of the storm itself and nothing that should impact the strength of the storm. In the atmosphere, generally rising and sinking motion should approximately balance out over a large area. Inside Ivan, there is a large amount of rising air, creating the convection powering the storm. Only a small fraction of this rising motion is counterbalanced by sinking motion in the eye; the rest has to balanced out along the periphery of the storm, thus the resultant "moat" of dry air around the storm. This dry air is thus not a product of actual dry air that will be infused into the storm, but storm-"created" dry air that should have little impact on its intensity.

In the short term, Ivan should continue to move WNW - roughly 295 degrees - then gradually turn NW and NNW over the course of the next 24-36 hours. On this path, it will come very close to the extreme western tip of Cuba; if we thought Charley took the path of least resistance over the island, Ivan may well redefine that notion. Hurricane warnings should go up for the western part of the island in the very near future, as the storm should pass over or very near to the tip sometime late tomorrow.

Unfortunately, this will probably be when the storm is at its peak intensity again...but fortunately, this will probably be the last time it reaches that intensity. The outflow channel provided by the upper-low in the Atlantic is gradually weakening as Ivan moves westward and the low retreats; furthermore, interactions with Cuba and eyewall replacement cycles should put an end to further intensification sometime late tomorrow, followed by perhaps a *slight* increase in shear having an impact at later times.

From there, forward motion should gradually begin to increase. Right now, Ivan is currently rounding the base of the ridge and entering somewhat of a "col" region of very weak steering currents. The current forward motion -- speed-wise -- will likely continue for another day to day and a half before the system gets caught up in the midlatitude steering flow. The shortwave over the S. Central US has dug a bit further south than expected and has additional support on the way from the Pacific Northwest. A slight bit further push to the south and east with this system is likely; I don't anticipate it weakening to any large degree nor retreating before the storm gets there. With this in mind, I feel confident that the Biloxi area is as far west as the storm gets. It's not inconceivable that it goes further west, I just view it as extremely unlikely.

After passing near the tip of Cuba through the Yucutan channel, the storm should roughly parallel the 85W line before turning NNE or even NE as it approaches the coast. On this path, the Panama City to Apalachicola area (and points from Apalachicola to St. Marks on the NE-SW oriented coast) are most likely to be affected. The NHC forecast path is a bit further west than my thinking here at landfall (though the landfall locations are similar, I think a more pronounced turn late in the Gulf is more likely), as are the majority of models. Landfall in about 3 to 3 and a half days -- late Wednesday most likely -- is what I anticipate somewhere in the Panama City-Apalachicola area. I'm trending towards the eastern side of that swath, with a forecast point early Thursday about 35 mi. west of Tallahassee, but that is subject to change. Remember, even 3-3.5 days out, track errors are subject to large biases.

Intensity is going to be the big question. We saw Bonnie not do much in this general region as it approached the coast, but the synoptic conditions were quite a bit different then - not to mention the intensity and size of the storm - than they are now. Shear should increase in the Gulf, yes, but not by much. Waters are still warm, as no storm has touched these waters to any large degree this season (note that Bonnie was moving 15-20mph throughout this area and took place almost a month ago). The storm will weaken before landfall, but by how much? As it approaches shore is the time when much of the weakening will take place, so it is not inconceiveable to see many worried folk in the Fl. Panhandle fretting over a 140-150mph hurricane approaching the coast, as with Opal. The storm should not make landfall at that intensity, however, thanks to increasing interaction with the trough as well as shallower waters (resulting in less overall energy for the storm); an intensity of 120-135mph, category 3/4, is more likely.

Again though, everyone from Biloxi east to Cedar Key should be paying close attention to this storm. I don't believe that this is one for the peninsula in any way, though don't be surprised to see tropical storm force conditions approach the shore as the storm moves northward. On the projected path, hurricane watches will likely be issued along the northern Gulf coast late tomorrow or early Tuesday, with hurricane warnings coming early-midday Tuesday. Tropical storm watches will likely be issued for areas to the east along the Fl. west coast, mostly as a precautionary device in case the wind field -- currently extending out ~175mi -- impacts the coast. But, in any case, people along the northern Gulf coast need to take heed of this one -- it's not pulling hard right between the Keys and Cuba and then hard north between the Bahamas and Florida and missing land, nor is it going to pull a Roxanne from 1995 and sit and spin and die in the Gulf.

Pressed for a landfall point into a mythical landfall pool, I would say a bit east of Mexico Beach (alternatively, a bit west of Cape San Blas) as a 125-130mph cat 3 storm around midnight Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

I'll try to add a bit more tomorrow and answer any questions I see, though it's going to be a rather busy day on my end.

However, despite this, it is still in everyone's best interests to take the word of the National Hurricane Center in times like this, noting the large uncertainty in the forecasted track and intensity of the storm as well as the fact that they are the professionals and have been doing this for many, many years.
--

ED's Thoughts on Ivan
Mike and Clark have pretty much covered the various possibilities regarding Ivan - but I'll add a few thoughts of my own. I also feel that Ivan will miss a western Cuba landfall and pass through the Yucatan Channel while still at Cat V (140kts). I think that the frontal system that entered the Pacific northwest a couple of days ago (as noted by Clark) will become more of a major player in the eventual course that Ivan takes. Steering currents in the southeast Gulf are very weak so I don't believe that Ivan will be in too much of a hurry to move northward - but I do expect a turn to the north.

At about 25 degrees, I think that Ivan will begin a more north northeasterly movement under the influence of the approaching front to the far northwest and the slow retreat of the Atlantic ridge. With this slow movement, I wouldn't be surprised to see landfall as late as Thursday mid-day - perhaps in the Suwannee area just north of Cedar Key. Intensity at landfall of 115kts (Cat III) with movement continuing to the north northeast - remaining over land and located in eastern North Carolina on Saturday as a 45-50 knot Tropical Storm (that's a long ride over land, but the path would be just inland from the Atlantic - and Ivan will take quite a long time to spin down). Be prepared for future track changes from NHC - with weak steering currents, defining Ivan's future track is not an easy task for anyone. I guess that I'm riding the eastern edge of Clark's cone, but everyone from Biloxi to Yankeetown needs to keep close tabs on Ivan's progress.

------

I have a big head when it comes to this stuff, so going to toss out my take as well. Trends are favoring Ed's approach to Ivan.. the storm has persistently gone slower, been behind schedule, and bucked the intensity forecasts mostly with eyewall fluctuations. Therefore my thinking is it will make more of a turn to the right in the Gulf, and come ashore early Thursday in the Big Bend. For now at least... further west will mean a much greater degree of coastal destruction.
In terms of intensity, Clark has the guiding factors outlined well already. The reduction in intensity that should result from moving into a slightly sheared environment, with shallower coastal waters, should come into play. Probably what will happen is that at some point the storm will stop recovering from eyewall replacement cycles.. and while remaining intense broaden, with a looser inner core. I'm expecting a landfall intensity of 110kt or so.. for now. It could easily spin down to a broad cat 2 system like Frances.. though unlikely it could still be a solid 4 when it hits also.
I'll move it around a couple of times probably between now and Wednesday, but for now here's my strike forecast:
Taylor County FL (Keaton Beach area), 110kt, 3 AM Thursday 9/16
-HF


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Event RelatedLinks
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures


General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ivan Category 5 Again MikeCAdministrator Sun Sep 12 2004 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again ston454   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Steve   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again richiesurfs   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Frank P   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again clueless   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again GaryC   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again lilyv   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again grasshopper2004   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:19 PM
. * * Re: model shifts doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:23 PM
. * * Re: model shifts richiesurfs   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:32 PM
. * * Re: model shifts MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:45 PM
. * * Re: model shifts Steve   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:43 PM
. * * Re: model shifts Terra   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: model shifts lilyv   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:08 PM
. * * Re: model shifts Terra   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:14 PM
. * * Re: model shifts jth   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:22 PM
. * * Re: model shifts Rabbit   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: model shifts SC Bill   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:08 PM
. * * Re: model shifts Jeffmidtown   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:07 PM
. * * Re: model shifts GaryC   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:10 PM
. * * Re: model shifts troy   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb recmod   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb wxman007   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb tenavilla   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb Kdubs   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:33 PM
. * * TD11 Rabbit   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:37 PM
. * * New Tropical Depression jth   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:36 PM
. * * Re: New Tropical Depression doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:45 PM
. * * Re: New Tropical Depression Redbird   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:50 PM
. * * New Direction for Ivan.. new tropical depression? LoisCane   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:02 PM
. * * accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:50 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away mbfly   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away jth   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:05 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away jth   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:12 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away richiesurfs   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:27 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away Fletch   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:36 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:56 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:41 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away Fletch   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:53 PM
. * * Thomas at midday WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Thomas at midday ShaggyDude   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Thomas at midday meto   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Cedar Key danigirl   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away AgentB   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:34 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away richiesurfs   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:51 PM
. * * anyone wanna know what 160 mph wind feels like? rickonboat   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:42 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away Mozart   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:33 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away richiesurfs   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:42 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away tenavilla   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:33 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away richiesurfs   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away tenavilla   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:49 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away richiesurfs   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away St. David   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:30 PM
. * * asking again re: speed LoisCane   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:05 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away mbfly   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away jth   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:08 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away tenavilla   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:17 PM
. * * Can New Orleanians offer up a sigh of relief? Kimmie   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Can New Orleanians offer up a sigh of relief? LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:33 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away jth   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away meto   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:31 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away jth   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:34 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away storm chaser   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:07 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:09 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away rickonboat   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away JackF   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:53 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away tenavilla   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:53 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away jlauderdal   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:50 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away Mozart   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away Rabbit   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:56 PM
. * * NNW WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Re: NNW Lisa NC   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:53 PM
. * * Re: New Tropical Depression Ed in Va   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: New Tropical Depression MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb AgentB   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb HCW   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb Ed in Va   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Another Vortex Message...back down to 912mb recmod   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb Redbird   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb staggy   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:31 PM
. * * New Disturbance recmod   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:36 PM
. * * Re: New Disturbance Redbird   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:41 PM
. * * Re: model shifts MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:05 PM
. * * Re: model shifts Keith234   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:20 PM
. * * Re: model shifts MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Early Afternoon thoughts... wxman007   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Early Afternoon thoughts... richiesurfs   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Early Afternoon thoughts... wxman007   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Landfall? Ed in Va   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Landfall? Rabbit   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:14 PM
. * * Re: Landfall? Jeffmidtown   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Landfall? MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:12 PM
. * * TAMPA BAY DISCUSSION Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:13 PM
. * * Re: model shifts jth   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: model shifts grasshopper   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:41 PM
. * * Re: model shifts richiesurfs   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:50 PM
. * * Re: model shifts doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:28 PM
. * * Re: model shifts richiesurfs   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:08 PM
. * * Re: model shifts Colleen A.   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:20 PM
. * * Re: model shifts mlamay   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re: model shifts doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:31 PM
. * * Re: model shifts Colleen A.   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:35 PM
. * * Re: model shifts scottsvb1   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:40 PM
. * * Re: model shifts tenavilla   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: model shifts doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Re: model shifts Thunder   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:00 PM
. * * Re: model shifts FireAng85   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Re: model shifts danigirl   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:08 PM
. * * Re: model shifts zim01   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:05 PM
. * * Re: model shifts Terra   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:04 PM
. * * Re: model shifts Thunder   Mon Sep 13 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Re: model shifts storm chaser   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:35 PM
. * * Special HFC Statement Ed in Va   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Special HFC Statement recmod   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Special HFC Statement Wxwatcher2   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Special HFC Statement LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Special HFC Statement Ed in Va   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Special HFC Statement BillD   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Special HFC Statement LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Special HFC Statement storm chaser   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Special HFC Statement wrybyndblf   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Special HFC Statement storm chaser   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:52 PM
. * * forward speed? lois   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: model shifts tenavilla   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: model shifts LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:52 PM
. * * New Vortex: 912mb recmod   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:41 PM
. * * Re: New Vortex: 912mb Londovir   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: New Vortex: 912mb Wxwatcher2   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:49 PM
. * * Re: New Vortex: 912mb scottsvb1   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:47 PM
. * * Re: New Vortex: 912mb Mozart   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:25 PM
. * * Re: New Vortex: 912mb DMFischer   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: New Vortex: 912mb Kimster   Mon Sep 13 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Re: New Vortex: 912mb recmod   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Surf's Up LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:28 PM
. * * Re: model shifts MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:31 PM
. * * Re: model shifts doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:40 PM
. * * Re: model shifts GaryC   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:26 PM
. * * Re: model shifts Tallahassee   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again grasshopper2004   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again GaryC   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Wxwatcher2   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Jeffmidtown   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again kirdona   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:27 PM
. * * Updated maps - Ivan ADV#45 SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Bioman   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Kdubs   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:03 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Bioman   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again tenavilla   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again storm chaser   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again GuppieGrouper   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again storm chaser   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:19 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Kimster   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Colleen A.   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Redbird   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again DMFischer   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again RevUp   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again ToddR   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Ricreig   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again RevUp   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Wxwatcher2   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again scottsvb1   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again storm chaser   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Wxwatcher2   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again scottsvb1   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Ricreig   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Colleen A.   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again dolphinscry   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again USFTampa   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Daytonaman   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again storm chaser   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Ricreig   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again storm chaser   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Ricreig   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:06 PM
. * * Ivan Turning More recmod   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More Ricreig   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More SirCane   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More Steve   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More jth   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More Lisa NC   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More GaryC   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More Colleen A.   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More Jane219ga   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More DMFischer   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More Mozart   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More GaryC   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More lilyv   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:39 PM
. * * Really concerned about this... LoisCane   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More palmetto   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More Richiesurfs   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More storm chaser   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More Rabbit   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Turning More GaryC   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again RevUp   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:18 AM
. * * NHC Special Announcement Kdubs   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Re: NHC Special Announcement yeah & think NOLA is safe lois   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:34 AM
. * * Re: NHC Special Announcement yeah & think NOLA is safe Colleen A.   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Rabbit   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again storm chaser   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:30 AM
. * * Back to the Keys?? Richie at work   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Back to the Keys?? RevUp   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Back to the Keys?? Takingforever   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Back to the Keys?? Sadie   Mon Sep 13 2004 05:44 PM
. * * NEW THREAD! LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 05:47 PM
. * * Re: NEW THREAD! storm chaser   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Back to the Keys?? RevUp   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Back to the Keys?? Ricreig   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:04 AM
. * * 11AM jth   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: 11AM Colleen A.   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:58 AM
. * * Re: 11AM Tallahassee   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:55 AM
. * * Re: 11AM Tallahassee   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:03 AM
. * * wondering Rabbit   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:00 AM
. * * Re: 11AM MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:58 AM
. * * Re: 11AM Tallahassee   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:01 AM
. * * Re: 11AM MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:00 AM
. * * Re: 11AM jth   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Back to the Keys?? HCW   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Back to the Keys?? Tallahassee   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again dani   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again anonymous   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again dani   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Bioman   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Rabbit   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:07 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Frank P   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Bioman   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again HCW   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:26 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Ga Resident   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again MoparMitch   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:28 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Bioman   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again teach1st   Mon Sep 13 2004 08:47 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again RevUp   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again javlin   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again RevUp   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again javlin   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again GuppieGrouper   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:25 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:57 AM
. * * Monroe County, FL Evacuation Discontinued!!! berrywr   Mon Sep 13 2004 06:34 AM
. * * Re: Monroe County, FL Evacuation Discontinued!!! GuppieGrouper   Mon Sep 13 2004 08:02 AM
. * * Re: Monroe County, FL Evacuation Discontinued!!! Frank P   Mon Sep 13 2004 08:10 AM
. * * Northerly Component? Kal   Mon Sep 13 2004 08:07 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:42 PM
. * * NHC Probability Chart Question... Cajun Cane   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: NHC Probability Chart Question... berrywr   Mon Sep 13 2004 06:20 AM
. * * Re: NHC Probability Chart Question... Jeffmidtown   Mon Sep 13 2004 06:33 AM
. * * Re: NHC Probability Chart Question... MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:27 PM
. * * Re: NHC Probability Chart Question... LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:31 PM
. * * Re: NHC Probability Chart Question... danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:41 PM
. * * Re: NHC Probability Chart Question... andy1tom   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again tenavilla   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Clark   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again RevUp   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Ormond Suzie   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again St. David   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again ShanaTX   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Jeffmidtown   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again kelcot   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:45 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Jeffmidtown   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again kelcot   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:35 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Terra   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:28 PM
. * * Pensacola Area dani   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:32 PM
. * * Hey Coop, JK & Andy1Tom LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Pensacola Area Hmmm   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Pensacola Area danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Pensacola Area Colleen A.   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:36 AM
. * * Rick and his Cat 5 prediction Southern4sure   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction mbfly   Mon Sep 13 2004 08:22 AM
. * * Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction RevUp   Mon Sep 13 2004 08:51 AM
. * * Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction jth   Mon Sep 13 2004 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction Ronn   Mon Sep 13 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction jth   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction jth   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:10 AM
. * * NHC Radar Terra   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:14 AM
. * * Re: NHC Radar GuppieGrouper   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:18 AM
. * * Predictions... Terra   Mon Sep 13 2004 08:40 AM
. * * Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction GuppieGrouper   Mon Sep 13 2004 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction Wxwatcher2   Mon Sep 13 2004 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction tenavilla   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:06 AM
. * * Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction doug   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction RevUp   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:17 AM
. * * Your favorite taboo topic... Terra   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Your favorite taboo topic... MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Your favorite taboo topic... Kdubs   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:28 AM
. * * Re: Your favorite taboo topic... MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction tenavilla   Mon Sep 13 2004 09:21 AM
. * * Site Fix MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:13 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix Colleen A.   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix berrywr   Mon Sep 13 2004 06:13 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix Colleen A.   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix kelcot   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix kelcot   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix kelcot   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix HanKFranK   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:13 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix Clark   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix kelcot   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:53 AM
. * * Re: TWC danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix kelcot   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix Jeffmidtown   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix Clark   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix Second Shift   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix Clark   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:34 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix Second Shift   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:43 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix RevUp   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:07 AM
. * * Re: Latest Recon danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Latest Recon Steve   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:09 AM
. * * Re: Latest Recon danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Latest Recon Clark   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:36 AM
. * * Re: Latest Recon danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:45 AM
. * * Re: Latest Recon Clark   Mon Sep 13 2004 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Latest Recon AdmittedHacker   Mon Sep 13 2004 05:26 AM
. * * Re: Latest Recon GuppieGrouper   Mon Sep 13 2004 05:38 AM
. * * Re: Latest Recon tikibar   Mon Sep 13 2004 06:13 AM
. * * Re: Latest Recon AdmittedHacker   Mon Sep 13 2004 05:57 AM
. * * Re: Latest Recon GuppieGrouper   Mon Sep 13 2004 06:12 AM
. * * Re: New Orleans NWS discussion danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 05:49 AM
. * * Re: Latest Recon RedingtonBeachGuy   Mon Sep 13 2004 05:35 AM
. * * Northerly Component? Kal   Mon Sep 13 2004 05:23 AM
. * * Ivan course appears NW now! berrywr   Mon Sep 13 2004 05:59 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix RevUp   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Ivan danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Frank P   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Ivan RevUp   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix HCW   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix RevUp   Mon Sep 13 2004 01:45 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:16 AM
. * * Re: Site Fix danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Re: well dan? javlin   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Pensacola Area dani   Mon Sep 13 2004 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again andy1tom   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:19 PM
. * * Ivan is now the official hurricane of the Who... LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Category 5 Again Seele   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:03 PM

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