Don't let your guard down. This is just a discussion. NOT a forecast!! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA 300 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 ...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH THE PATH OF IVAN THIS MORNING BUT HAVE A GENERAL CONCENSUS TO BRING IT TOWARD THE WESTERN FLA PAN AREA. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NOGAPS...ETA...CANADIAN...GFDL AND BAMD BRING THIS THING FARTHER WEST INTO THE NEW OREANS AREA. PROBLEM WITH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS IS THE CURRENT GENERAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE GENERAL FLOW IS STILL WNW OUTSIDE THE ENVELOPE OF IVAN. THE TROUGH THAT IS SUPPOSED TO PICK IVAN UP IS NOT BRINGING THIS FLOW MORE NORTH ATTM. IF THE TROUGH DOES NOT PICK THE HURRICANE UP...IT MAY LEAD TO A SLOWING TREND OVER TIME. ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE CONUS WED AND WILL DIG TOWARD THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IF IVAN DOES NOT FEEL THE PULL FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IT MAY SIT OVER THE GULF WITH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS BEFORE EVENTUALLY FEELING THE NEXT TROUGH'S PULL. THIS IS POSSIBLE BUT ACCORDING TO TPC'S FORECAST NOT PROBABLE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A MORE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN IVAN'S TRACK BEFORE FEELING MORE COMFORTABLE.
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