13 Sep - 1000Z - Your observation is correct; Ivan is now moving NW. I read the NHC discussion issued at 09Z and please note the forecaster was prepared to make the track more west than continuity would allow; that said, the current shear over the Gulf coast is quite impressive; 70 knots over Central Alabama, and forecasted to remain above the criteria necessary to sustain a Category 4/5 hurricane. If this is indeed the beginning of the long expected right turn, it is doubtful that Ivan will track to the La. coast. I suspect the NHC boys have this advisory thought out and is correct for gradual weakening; assuming the shear persists as currently forecasts by SHIP model. There will be some impact by the current shortwave traversing through the Gulf coast states today, but the next one now over the inter-mountain area of the US is expected to be what pulls Ivan north and northeast in the 72 hour forecast period; perhaps sooner. It has to be said, that model guidance is very suspect beyond 72 hours, and with every advisory, course correction has been made westward. I doubt beyond the 11 am advisory there will be anymore westward adjustment.
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