I would add, that the computers are also only as smart as the DATA that is put into it, and qute frankly, there is so MUCH MORE data that needs to go in, than is able to for a variety of reasons. Data in the oceanic areas is sparse, hence the NOAA flights to use dropsondes to sample the atmosphere around the storm. Also, if a model uses x number of levels in its input, there are theoretically an infinite amount of levels that CAN be input. But then, the 12z runs wouldn't finish until 0z! (might be an exaggeration). In the winter time, mid-Atl. forecasters are reluctant to forecast strong storms way out into the future, because many times the energy used to create it is out in the Pacific, and except for satellite data, there isn't much data. When it enters land areas, then it can be better factored in. Because of all of the above, a forum like this can exist and be valuable.
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