The subsidence bulge is generally to the nw of the center approaching LA, but the upper air currents seem to suggest a NE bend at around 26.5-27.0. If this scenario holds look for a more eastward land fall to about Apalachecola. But this is a dynamic and if the forward speed does not increase the set up could be drastically different. I think forward momentum to the NW is the biggest variable right now as the dynamic is setting up pretty clearly...trough digging down to capture the storm...it is just a matter of timing now. I think the steady northward path into Pensacola is not likely, and is really improbable in a slower moving situation.
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