So far, the forecast is panning out just about as we expected here in my weather office...the turn is slighly sharper than I first thought, but in the end it should be about right regardless.
One thing to remember as you look at 12z model data. DON'T. The models initialized with a WNW motion, but he made the turn to the NW or NNW about the time of the runs, so the models are all a bit (or a lot) too far west right now. Stacy caught this, and will probably expand upon it at 5.
I see no reason to change my forecast philosophy or reasoning and am now going to call for a landfall, near or (more likely) in my viewing area, just slightly west of Panama City, early Thursday (time to hang my hat on something...I have hedged long enough).
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 123015
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center