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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

chinook
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
Loc: Larimer County, Colorado
Re: Musings at 1:45AM
      Tue Sep 14 2004 05:43 AM

"At the risk of sounding crazy, I have been looking at water vapor loops tonight and the pictures I am looking at unless they are way hours old, tell the story. The hurricane is going to go where the moisture is available."

There's nothing crazy about your observations at all. Here's my hunch in the context of the events of the last several days, and why. I'll start with the modeling. Clearly, CAT5 is beyond the range of available data. Any competent analyst/researcher that builds an empirical model provides ranges from sample data and precautions to users regarding extrapolations, i.e. projections beyond the ability of source data to estimate conditions, location, etc. But in the "real" world, by the time model output is dropped in the laps of (1) those that execute the programs, and (2) the end user, all precautions are gone or ignored. Mix in the politics and federal funds, and output mysteriously becomes biblical. Thus, each day the models screw up, folks go to bed, and then everyone starts a new day to see where the models point, all in an atmosphere of total effective amnesia regarding the previous day's failure. It's groundhog day all over again. I know there are a lot of sensitivities out there, but it is unreasonable to claim the models do better today than they did 20 years ago, and then use the statement to justify repeated gross error. So what. The models blew it back at Jamaica at best, and probably back in Grenada. End of story. One contributor last night posted an image of daily misses vs. Ivan's actual track. This was an interesting exercise that reveals persistent bias, but the approach suffers from, in a sense, serial correlation - errors each day that should be compounded, or propagated, and that are dependent on previous errors, are ignored. Once Ivan left the prediction "cone" many days earlier, meaning it effectively left the (presumed) 95% bounds for the predicted value(s) output by the models, the models had failed, the projected track left Ivan, and it's back to the drawing board for a new model. It no longer matters, from a modeling perspective, if Ivan now hangs a sharp right and does a 90 into Florida (just an example, folks). The models failed.

Granted, forecasting is extraordinarily complex and encumbered by sparse data. Folks in the way 2 or 3 days out need a feel for what to expect in the form of impending danger. Model runs will continue. But as Ivan virtually straightlined through the Caribbean, rather than shoot up the west Florida coast, posters here and presumably everywhere recognized the apparent land aversion. Even the special effort Ivan made over the last couple of days to avoid Cuba draws attention. As such, given this is a monster CAT5, there is not a reason in the world to believe any model was going to predict back at Grenada that this would be the path. There are simply too few observations (available data), and too many fundamental voids in theory, to expect any better. Nor do I recall in the casual surfing I've done during this circus that any forecaster called this path back at Grenada, though as a sheer matter of probability, one is out there somewhere. JB got close in his own way, but he bailed.

Thus, speculation about outlier hurricane behavior is by no means out of place. Nobody else has it figured out, that's for sure. Perhaps new thinking is required, and this is how the model revamping process starts. For example, maybe the apparent land aversion is not a land aversion at all. Maybe, for a hurricane of this strength, the rules change. Perhaps water vapor is the answer; here's my gut feeling. Perhaps a very large hurricane must be viewed not as just an intense cyclone, but as a body of (relatively) hot water looking for a release mechanism, thermodynamics in action, where guiding winds and low and high pressure systems are of much lesser importance. In this sense, Hurricane Caribbean ended last night, and with morning we say hello to Hurricane Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone itself is the energy release mechanism that has just by chance become available (where "by chance" means we do not have the understanding necessary to explain and accurately project the release mechanism's birth and transport). So while we watched Ivan's eye meander somewhat and the system appeared to avoid land, perhaps what was really happening is that the tremendous energy in the hot bath of the Caribbean, the core of what we are observing as an energy system, simply would not let go of the energy release mechanism. Similarly, perhaps water vapor has it's own role to play, since we are dealing with highly complex energy systems.

I grant these ideas can and will be easily criticized for being trivial, simplistic, ignorant and practically redundant. But nobody has gotten Ivan right yet. Importantly, we must question the wisdom of providing 5-day incorrect misleading error-laden forecasts, particularly for an outlying event for which there is little precedence and at best sparse data. Surely people died in accidents of various sorts (cars, heart attacks, fights, emotional standoffs and domestic disputes) as they fled or boarded-up under incorrect pretenses. We will not hear about them. To state, as some have, that it is better to be safe than sorry, is to succumb to the precautionary principle. Should we live lives of total paranoia? Maybe Long Island should be evacuated, just in case. Heck, we might as well evacuate Colorado, just in case. Just how safe should we be, and how wrong should models be before we finally draw a line and say wait - there must be a better way. After all, it's our taxes that are paying for the models, and taxpayers' lives that are endangered.

Sure, hurricanes are complex circulations that are tossing moist and dry air all over the place. But maybe there is something to your water vapor idea...

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida MikeCAdministrator Tue Sep 14 2004 05:43 AM
. * * Good Link to a Moored Bouy close to Ivans path cocoa Beach   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:40 AM
. * * Hurricane, storms, depressions & waves SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane, storms, depressions & waves Steve hirschb.   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:37 AM
. * * Jean as fish? Ed in Va   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:38 AM
. * * Ready in Mobile HCW   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida 103177   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:06 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida Redbird   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida anon   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida ddrehman   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida anon   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:28 PM
. * * NEW THREAD!!! LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida USFTampa   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:33 AM
. * * Updated maps - NHC Advisory 47 SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida KornR   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida BillD   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida BillD   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida meto   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida BabyCat   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida rule   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida Frank P   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Repost dani   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:53 PM
. * * Repost on new ETA MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Steveunplugged   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Steve   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA HCW   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Terra   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:42 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Steve   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:57 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:26 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA DroopGB31   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:40 AM
. * * Good Luck! Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:08 AM
. * * Hunkering Down tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Steve   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA DroopGB31   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Ronn   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA saints63213   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:34 AM
. * * Hey Mike RedingtonBeachGuy   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike AdmittedHacker   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike Nobody important   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike JackLove   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike mlamay   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike Tarpon   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Tallahassee   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA JackLove   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Ed in Va   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:47 AM
. * * Recon dani   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Novice   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth off   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:37 PM
. * * I'm Confused! SoonerShawn   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA scottsvb   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Frank P   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA clyde w.   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Watch/warning width BeachBum   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA BabyCat   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves BabyCat   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves kelcot   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves Seele   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves BillD   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:31 AM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:56 AM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves meto   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves BabyCat   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA k___g   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA USFTampa   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:45 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth off   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA meto   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:12 AM
. * * storm surge BabyCat   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:04 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Recon Eye Fix danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:12 AM
. * * OOZ GFS... wxman007   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... chuck325   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:44 AM
. * * Re:Educated Guess Unlucky   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:01 AM
. * * Re:Educated Guess FunkyLamb   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:06 AM
. * * Gulf Wave Heights Londovir   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Wave Heights carolt_melbourne   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:52 AM
. * * Musings at 1:45AM Bloodstar   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Musings at 1:45AM GuppieGrouper   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:22 AM
. * * Re: Musings at 1:45AM OrlandoDan   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:21 AM
. * * Re: Musings at 1:45AM storm 1   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:32 AM
. * * Re: Center danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:37 AM
. * * Re: Musings at 1:45AM chinook   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:43 AM
. * * Re: Musings at 1:45AM MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:43 AM
. * * Re:1000z Update danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:20 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:03 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS...Upon Further Inspection... wxman007   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:08 AM
. * * 00z NOGAPS wxman007   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:14 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:38 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:54 AM
. * * would you? waatcher   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:01 AM
. * * Re: would you? ShanaTX   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:18 AM
. * * Re: would you? danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:05 AM
. * * Re: would you? waatcher   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:18 AM
. * * Re: would you? danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:30 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS USFTampa   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:33 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:51 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS mlamay   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:54 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Ronn   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:43 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS STORM CHASER   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:04 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:09 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:12 AM
. * * Turns, Twists & Tempers Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:39 AM
. * * Re: Turns, Twists & Tempers Tarpon   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 PM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:16 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:33 AM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:34 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS rmbjoe1954   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:11 AM
. * * TS Jeanne Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 AM
. * * Strengthening prior to landfall??? jth   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:12 AM
. * * 11am update tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:51 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS jth   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:47 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Spectrum24   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:07 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Tarpon   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:37 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS anonymous   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:58 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:36 AM
. * * TV out of New Orleans Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:41 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Elaine H   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:43 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:34 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:48 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:38 AM
. * * Clark, MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:28 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:42 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:48 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:51 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:40 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:18 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:16 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:02 AM
. * * Miss Sound waves Frank P   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:17 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... Kent   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:06 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... SoonerShawn   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Steve   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Wxwatcher2   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA DroopGB31   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:34 PM
. * * Keys are windy Kdubs   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:44 PM
. * * Scotts Post... LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Colleen A.   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA kirdona   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:12 PM

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