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96L may form tomorrow, the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should watch it closely. Too soon to tell beyond that.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 48 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3222 (8 y 9 m) (Wilma)
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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Repost on new ETA
      Tue Sep 14 2004 07:57 AM

First of all, check out the 10:45UTC Goes 12 IR. You're going to have to back it up a couple of frames to see.

Goes 12 IR

A face emerged in the eye - Sheep? Dog? Whale? You call it.

Having that out the way, you people in Coastal Mississippi and Coastal Alabama REALLY need to prepare for a major-league storm surge. The 06z ETA, GFS and other related models are out and have come around to my way of thinking. The storm is going to get very close to the Mouth of the MS and veer a bit N-NNE toward the Mississippi Coast. Whether the system is getting ragged or if we're in another eyewall replacement cycle should be a good indicator of how strong it's going to be at landfall. We're facing a threat of anywhere between a Cat 2 and a Cat 4 (most likely a low-mid 3 IMHO) at landfall. Due to the size of the storm, if I have the right ideas, nasty weather will be farther east all the way to possibly Seaside-Panama City Beach - especially watch out for torandic activity on the fringes east as always.
-------------------------------------------------
I read Bastardi this morning. He's pretty sure it's going to come up to 89 or 88W though 90 is his western-most edge. He thinks there will be hurricane impacts for the Crescent City but notes that this isn't our doomsday scenario ala the hurricane of 1947 where a storm cutting ESE south of the city dumps the Gulf into the Lake and spills the Lake into the city. He sees (on his track) hurricane force north wind gusts, rain, flooding and other assorted problems, but this is not the same as the threat for Mobile if the storm comes up just west of there. Think MASSIVE water piling up into a funnel shaped bay. He also believes the storm will be somewhat slow moving and weakening at landfall. It may have Charley pressure, but not the same surprise impact. He cautioned that Mobile-Pensacola is vulnerable and he will not hesitate to change his ideas if he sees an actual path that is off of his ideas and further east, he will not hesitate to say so.
---------------------------------------------------- Hurricane force winds are expected roughly 100 miles either side of landfall and tropical storm winds are possible 200 miles either way. Therefore, a storm impacting Gulfport would have tropical storm force winds from lower Terrebonne & Lafourche Parishes in LA to just east of Panama City Beach.

This is shaping up to be a storm for all of us on the Northern Gulf Coast. Take care and get those precautions and final preps. I'm getting ready to take the old lady's car over to the tire store to get her some new wheels so she can cruise out to Memphis later this afternoon. As stated last night, I'll be hunkering in expecting some nasty but not destructive weather.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida MikeCAdministrator Tue Sep 14 2004 07:57 AM
. * * Good Link to a Moored Bouy close to Ivans path cocoa Beach   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:40 AM
. * * Hurricane, storms, depressions & waves SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane, storms, depressions & waves Steve hirschb.   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:37 AM
. * * Jean as fish? Ed in Va   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:38 AM
. * * Ready in Mobile HCW   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida 103177   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:06 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida Redbird   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida anon   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida ddrehman   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida anon   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:28 PM
. * * NEW THREAD!!! LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida USFTampa   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:33 AM
. * * Updated maps - NHC Advisory 47 SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida KornR   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida BillD   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida BillD   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida meto   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida BabyCat   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida rule   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida Frank P   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Repost dani   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:53 PM
. * * Repost on new ETA MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Steveunplugged   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Steve   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA HCW   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Terra   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:42 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Steve   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:57 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:26 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA DroopGB31   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:40 AM
. * * Good Luck! Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:08 AM
. * * Hunkering Down tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Steve   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA DroopGB31   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Ronn   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA saints63213   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:34 AM
. * * Hey Mike RedingtonBeachGuy   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike AdmittedHacker   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike Nobody important   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike JackLove   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike mlamay   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike Tarpon   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Tallahassee   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA JackLove   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Ed in Va   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:47 AM
. * * Recon dani   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Novice   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth off   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:37 PM
. * * I'm Confused! SoonerShawn   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA scottsvb   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Frank P   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA clyde w.   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Watch/warning width BeachBum   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA BabyCat   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves BabyCat   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves kelcot   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves Seele   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves BillD   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:31 AM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:56 AM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves meto   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves BabyCat   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA k___g   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA USFTampa   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:45 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth off   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA meto   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:12 AM
. * * storm surge BabyCat   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:04 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Recon Eye Fix danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:12 AM
. * * OOZ GFS... wxman007   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... chuck325   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:44 AM
. * * Re:Educated Guess Unlucky   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:01 AM
. * * Re:Educated Guess FunkyLamb   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:06 AM
. * * Gulf Wave Heights Londovir   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Wave Heights carolt_melbourne   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:52 AM
. * * Musings at 1:45AM Bloodstar   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Musings at 1:45AM GuppieGrouper   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:22 AM
. * * Re: Musings at 1:45AM OrlandoDan   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:21 AM
. * * Re: Musings at 1:45AM storm 1   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:32 AM
. * * Re: Center danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:37 AM
. * * Re: Musings at 1:45AM chinook   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:43 AM
. * * Re: Musings at 1:45AM MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:43 AM
. * * Re:1000z Update danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:20 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:03 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS...Upon Further Inspection... wxman007   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:08 AM
. * * 00z NOGAPS wxman007   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:14 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:38 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:54 AM
. * * would you? waatcher   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:01 AM
. * * Re: would you? ShanaTX   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:18 AM
. * * Re: would you? danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:05 AM
. * * Re: would you? waatcher   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:18 AM
. * * Re: would you? danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:30 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS USFTampa   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:33 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:51 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS mlamay   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:54 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Ronn   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:43 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS STORM CHASER   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:04 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:09 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:12 AM
. * * Turns, Twists & Tempers Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:39 AM
. * * Re: Turns, Twists & Tempers Tarpon   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 PM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:16 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:33 AM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:34 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS rmbjoe1954   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:11 AM
. * * TS Jeanne Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 AM
. * * Strengthening prior to landfall??? jth   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:12 AM
. * * 11am update tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:51 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS jth   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:47 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Spectrum24   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:07 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Tarpon   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:37 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS anonymous   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:58 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:36 AM
. * * TV out of New Orleans Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:41 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Elaine H   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:43 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:34 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:48 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:38 AM
. * * Clark, MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:28 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:42 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:48 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:51 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:40 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:18 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:16 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:02 AM
. * * Miss Sound waves Frank P   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:17 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... Kent   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:06 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... SoonerShawn   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Steve   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Wxwatcher2   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA DroopGB31   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:34 PM
. * * Keys are windy Kdubs   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:44 PM
. * * Scotts Post... LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Colleen A.   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA kirdona   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:12 PM

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