First, with the remnants of Ivan, which is still a big issue because if it stalls, areas that don't need rain, could see severe flooding...... I think 3 out of the last 4 GFS runs take the remnant circulation to the Va. capes before getting it trapped. This would be better news for those in the Southern App. because the rainfall distribution will be larger. This is due to the fact that the GFS (and the last ETA run) have Ivan temporarily picked up by a trough moving through the N.E., then it cuts off again, as the trough moves away, and High pressure ALOFT builds over top the remnant low. In fact, the GFS closes off a 588 Dm height line over the mid Atlantic-N.E., which is pretty strong. How Jeanne interacts should probably wait for more data, and time. I am not going to go into model forecasts for Jeanne, since I don't think any have been initialized well yet. Here is a link to the Model Diagnostic discussion, which comes out twice a day, usually around 1. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
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