Spock, I was critical once but apologized because I thought you were someone else. I told you so in the prior thread. But what you find critical of yourself in this:
That's what he believes. People accuse him of hyping and sensationalism. He likes the extreme stuff (as apparently so do we). But that was his opinion. I have not read today's post, but let me see...
He thinks it's cat 2 or 3 by Tuesday/Wed with all options open. Ivan's MLC should split south and southwest tonight bringing gales to the northern GA coast and end up in the NE Gulf by around Monday nigh (depending on what's left). The irony woul dbe something heading toward the West and Central Gulf (again, due to the pattern, similar to way Gaston was sniffed out 2 weeks before anything was there) that is neither Ivan nor Jeanne, but could be one or both.
I said last Thursday morning on S2K and posed a challenge in 3 different threads for any of the met gurus to figure out what is the most complex tropical situation we've seen in forever. Bastardi also acknowledges(ed) the same thing and presents his opinion as such.
is beyond me. I was simply explaining where I was coming from and what he was saying. If you don't agree with it, fine. I said I didn't agree with Bastardi in the reply after the original cut and paste from the S2K thread. I just presented what he said MIGHT happen. In the response to Darth, I used the UK Met.
My take is that it's been "too complicated to guess" since Thursday. It still is. We've got interaction with 3 storms or (or their remnants). Anything could happen. Ivan's MLC (if the UK Met - which has changed a little since the 00Z run) might be a Gulf entity as just some showery weather. Jeanne could get in the Gulf, but I think the slower she is really determines her fate. I don't agree with Bastardi about the compromise tracks between Frances and Ivan close to Florida. I see it much farther north of there. And if it gets back too far NNE after Monday or Tuesday, it may never get back to FL. If it even comes back, we'd be talking Charleston and farther north. No hard feelings. I don't agree with him either, but his strogest lean was put out for informational purposes. ---------------------------------------------- richie,
No big deal. What I think you're saying is after being hit by 2 storms, the last thing you want is someone telling you to watch out for another one because the official forecast doesn't call for such scenario yet. In truth, there are probably numerous options from no landfalls of anything to a couple of strikes on the coast over the next 8-10 days. I told Spock I was confused. I'll tell you the same thing. I don't think anything will be cleared up this weekend, and probably not even by Monday or Tuesday. Until then, it's all eyes on the tropics.
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