Question about the HPC discussion below, which takes Jeanne fairly close to NC: What is the relationship between HPC and TPC...looks like they coordinate with other, but the HPC goes out 7 days?? THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN LOOKING VERY MUCH LIKE THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLN FROM THE PRELIM PROGS. DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES TO THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS OVER THE CONUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TWO TROP SYSTEMS. THE NOGAPS IS TRENDING WEAKER BUT CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE UPR TROF OVER THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY IN THE PD WHILE THE CAN GLOB IS TRENDING STRONGER AND SLOWER BY DAY 3/FRI. THE TIMING OF THIS TROF WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE TRACK/TIMING OF BOTH HRCN JEANNE AND THE REMNANTS OF IVAN IN THE GOMEX. WITH BOTH OF THESE MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE TROF...ONE WOULD THINK A STRONGER SOLN WOULD WIN OUT...BUT BOTH MODELS ALLOW THE TROF TO LIFT OUT AND SEND JEANNE TO THE S OF THE H5 RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL POINTS FROM THE UKMET SEND THE SYS WELL OUT TO SEA BY DAY 6/MON...WITH A PSN AT 33.2N 70.0W...AND THE 12Z GFS STILL REFUSES TO TAKE THE SYSTEM WEST OF 70N. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF THRU DAY 5/SUN WHICH WAS AMPLIFIED AND HAD A SIMILAR TIMING TO THE 00Z GFS...ALLOWING JEANNE TO THE PICKED UP BY THE TROF. THE 06Z NCEP ENS MEAN ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER...BUT STILL REASONABLY STRONG...H5 RIDGE APPROACHING JEANNE. THE ULTIMATE SOLN...WHICH WAS AGREED UPON DURING COORD WITH TPC...ALLOWED FOR A MUCH MORE WLY SOLN THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AFTER DAY 6/MON...BUT DOES NOT TAKE THE SYS ONSHORE ON DAY 7/TUES. THIS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE IDEA OF THE PRELIM PROGS WHICH WERE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND THE SLOWER NCEP ENS MEAN SOLN.
THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN GOMEX ATTM. THE MANUAL PROGS REFLECT COORD WITH TPC.
-------------------- Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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