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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
ANDREW ANYONE???
      Wed Sep 22 2004 10:03 AM

I think the models will continue more west but not much, thing is still will it make it too the gulf??? I think it will affect florida with TS winds at the least, if not its a bust forecast but Im not 100% sure if it will get to 81W and south of 29N. Anyways my forecast has it coming to florida still over the last many days. Just was delayed a couple days due to Hispaniola interaction and shear (though if you look back on my posts when Jeanne even formed I said this would happen) though more then I thought. Anyways everyone is saying Betsy or another storm,.,,,,but really folks I posted a week ago or so,,,,Andrew anyone??? Im sure the regulars on here remember that post and this is where roughly he went N to this location alot people said he would go out to sea but they feared the ridge building into the western atlantic,,,,he turned south for a day then w and even wsw thru Homestead. Now will this get as strong as Andrew?,,,,NO. Reason really wont be too much the shear but the dry air should keep this around 105-120mph. I expect strengthning up to a Cat 3 just prior to landfall as she will encounter warm ssts near the cape with the gulf stream. I think the ridge will hold her on a w course alittle longer cause it will be alittle stronger then forecasted and also resulting in a weakning trough running into the ridge. Jeanne will find a weakness though over the weekend and get pulled up but it might get stuck while the weak trough exits and a reinforcing ridge developing over the great lakes moves easterward to build back over the region. All this now is past 5 days so I wont say this will happen but its there. Anyways currently she has begun her wobbles to the sw and will get close to 25.5N and then head west. Hurricane watches for the central and northern bahamas will be issued by tomorrow morning but maybe as early as 11pm tonight.,,,(40%) on tonight.
With the rest of the Atlantic,, Karl will move N or then NNW then go back N and NE,,, never getting past 52w. Lisa will also stay way east of the Lesser Antillies and might not get past 55W. System behind that might get closer to 20N and 60 W by the weekend but anything now moving WNW or NW east of 65W and north of 15 will have almost a 10% chance of ever making it to the U.S. They will encounter the westerlys that dive down to 20-25N more often pulling the system northward and also causeing shear ( not good for tropical development). Basically its under 15N moving thru the carribean then heading up to threaten the central or eastern gulf. Son of Ivan could still make it to a TS. Hard to tell if it will and if it will, then pull south near the Texas coast or move inland.Thing is there is a seasonal upper ridge over Mexico that might pulll it down to the bay of campeache. I do feel in about 10-14days we will find something trying to develop down there or in the sw carribean as a strong trough develops over the eastern U.S. Deep carribean moisture will combine with possible remenents of td14? or a tropical wave and start to form a depression. Not saying this will happen but the pattern recognition is there over the 10-14 day period and NO,,no models are showing this. I dont go by the models all the time cause they will change from run to run. Anyways, Illl post more later. scottsvb

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Jeanne Watch MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 22 2004 10:03 AM
. * * Weird observation re Ivan ShanaTX   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Weird observation re Ivan Kent   Wed Sep 22 2004 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Weird observation re Ivan 52255225   Wed Sep 22 2004 07:32 PM
. * * ANDREW ANYONE??? scottsvb   Wed Sep 22 2004 10:03 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne Watch Rabbit   Wed Sep 22 2004 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne Watch MO stormspotter   Wed Sep 22 2004 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne Watch Rabbit   Wed Sep 22 2004 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne Watch Unplugged Pig   Wed Sep 22 2004 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne Watch Rabbit   Wed Sep 22 2004 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne Watch MO Stormspotter   Wed Sep 22 2004 10:33 AM
. * * Jeanne at 11 Ed in Va   Wed Sep 22 2004 10:42 AM
. * * Re: T-numbers on 94L ticka1   Wed Sep 22 2004 10:44 AM
. * * Re: T-numbers on 94L LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 10:51 AM
. * * Re: T-numbers on 94L LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 10:52 AM
. * * 94L SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 22 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: 94L 8675309   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:15 AM
. * * Re: 94L #Teal61   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:19 AM
. * * Re: 94L LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:24 AM
. * * Re: 94L Redbird1   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:28 AM
. * * Re: 94L Allison   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:30 AM
. * * Re: 94L SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:26 AM
. * * Re: 94L Allison   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:42 AM
. * * Re: 94L Ivy   Wed Sep 22 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Re: 94L Allison   Wed Sep 22 2004 01:02 PM
. * * Re: 94L Allison   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:22 AM
. * * Tracking 5 systems... LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Ricreig   Wed Sep 22 2004 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Steve hirschb.   Wed Sep 22 2004 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... scottsvb   Wed Sep 22 2004 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Mooshie-SC   Wed Sep 22 2004 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... scottsvb   Wed Sep 22 2004 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Mooshie-SC   Wed Sep 22 2004 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Joe   Wed Sep 22 2004 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Storm Cooper   Wed Sep 22 2004 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Redbird1   Wed Sep 22 2004 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Ricreig   Wed Sep 22 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Redbird1   Wed Sep 22 2004 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Liz L.   Wed Sep 22 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Steve hirschb.   Wed Sep 22 2004 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... storm chaser   Wed Sep 22 2004 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Frank P   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... lois   Wed Sep 22 2004 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Redbird1   Wed Sep 22 2004 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Redbird1   Wed Sep 22 2004 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Redbird1   Wed Sep 22 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Redbird1   Wed Sep 22 2004 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Sep 22 2004 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Fletch   Wed Sep 22 2004 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... scottsvb   Wed Sep 22 2004 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Frank P   Wed Sep 22 2004 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 02:43 PM
. * * And the broad center of 94L is.... Frank P   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:11 PM
. * * Re: And the broad center of 94L is.... Frank P   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:27 PM
. * * Re: And the broad center of 94L is.... Allison   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:42 PM
. * * Re: And the broad center of 94L is.... doug   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:01 PM
. * * Re: And the broad center of 94L is.... mbfly   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:48 PM
. * * Coastal Weather Research Frank P   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:07 PM
. * * Trust the NHC LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Trust the NHC mbfly   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Trust the NHC Kimberley Clark   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Trust the NHC AgentB   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Trust the NHC Redbird   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:57 PM
. * * Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD Staggy   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD doug   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD Allison   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:13 PM
. * * Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD Redbird   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Trust the NHC LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Trust the NHC Redbird   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Trust the NHC Fletch   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Trust the NHC Redbird   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Re: And the broad center of 94L is.... SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:27 PM
. * * you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far Frank P   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:32 PM
. * * Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:35 PM
. * * Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far Frank P   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:44 PM
. * * Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:56 PM
. * * 94L Recon Allison   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: 94L Recon Kimberley Clark   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:19 PM
. * * Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? Kent   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? Kent   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:56 PM
. * * Sucking hard LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? Fletch   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne...5pm Discussion danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne...5pm Discussion Kent   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne...5pm Discussion Ed in Va   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Well Well......... teal61   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Well Well......... Allison   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Well Well......... teal61   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:22 PM
. * * track Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:35 PM
. * * Re: track teal61   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:42 PM
. * * Re: track teal61   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:54 PM
. * * Re: track Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:52 PM
. * * Re: recon danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:56 PM
. * * Re: sat Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:05 PM
. * * Re: recon lilyv   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:59 PM
. * * July 31, 2004 LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:03 PM
. * * Re: July 31, 2004 gailmm   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:09 AM
. * * Re: July 31, 2004 COgal   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:27 PM
. * * Re: July 31, 2004 LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:33 PM
. * * Re: July 31, 2004 Redbird   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:36 PM
. * * Neil Diamond??? LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:40 PM
. * * He's BACK! wxman007   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:42 PM
. * * Re: He's BACK! troy   Wed Sep 22 2004 07:25 PM
. * * Re: He's BACK! cmdebbie   Wed Sep 22 2004 07:36 PM
. * * Re: He's BACK! MO Stormspotter   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:43 PM
. * * Re recon Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:37 PM
. * * Re: July 31, 2004 Mooshie-SC   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:05 PM
. * * Re: July 31, 2004 Redbird   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:07 PM
. * * Re: July 31, 2004 steph   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:05 PM
. * * Re: July 31, 2004 Redbird   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:05 PM
. * * Look What I Found!!!! SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:01 PM
. * * Back up after 7 Days down! ErinAndOpal95   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:28 PM
. * * 2 Thoughts/Points LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:31 PM
. * * Re: 2 Thoughts/Points Kimberley Clark   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:50 PM
. * * Re: 2 Thoughts/Points mbfly   Wed Sep 22 2004 07:04 PM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 07:05 PM
. * * Re: 2 Thoughts/Points Allison   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:47 PM
. * * Re: 2 Thoughts/Points Keith234   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:49 PM
. * * Ivan and 94L SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:51 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and 94L Allison   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and 94L Bloodstar   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:05 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and 94L teal61   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and 94L Rabbit   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and 94L Redbird   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and 94L Rabbit   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Central Florida Hit..Holy Molly! DMFischer   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and 94L danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Ivan and 94L Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 22 2004 06:27 PM
. * * 94L and the winds SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:27 PM
. * * Shawn... teal61   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Shawn... SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:42 PM
. * * First outerbands approach MS coast and NO Frank P   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Shawn... Brad   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:37 PM
. * * JB LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:41 PM
. * * From The TWO.... teal61   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:26 PM
. * * Re: From The TWO.... Kimberley Clark   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:44 PM
. * * 94L and the Front SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:49 PM
. * * Re: 94L and the Front Kimberley Clark   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:57 PM
. * * Re: From The TWO.... Frank P   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:29 PM
. * * Re: From The TWO.... Keith234   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Well Well......... Frank P   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Well Well......... LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne animated path SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne animated path Allison   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne animated path LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:51 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne animated path Frank P   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne animated path Redbird   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne animated path lilyv   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:50 PM
. * * Recon Brad   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Well Well......... Frank P   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Well Well......... Redbird   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:30 PM
. * * Jeanne-CAT II at 5:00 LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne-CAT II at 5:00 Redbird   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne-CAT II at 5:00 Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne-CAT II at 5:00 Joe   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? Fletch   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? MO Stormspotter   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? Fletch   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:31 PM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: recon MO Stormspotter   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:41 PM
. * * Re: recon danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Re: recon rd522525   Wed Sep 22 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: recon Allison   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:56 PM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? AdmittedHacker   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? Brad   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? doug   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? AgentB   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: 94L Recon mikeG   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Re: 94L Recon Allison   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:17 PM
. * * Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far Fletch   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:47 PM
. * * Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:39 PM
. * * Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far Fletch   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:39 PM
. * * Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:43 PM
. * * Re: And the broad center of 94L is.... leetdan   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Fletch   Wed Sep 22 2004 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... leetdan   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... doug   Wed Sep 22 2004 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Fletch   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:00 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... doug   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... CarolinaGurl   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... CarolinaGurl   Wed Sep 22 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Grasshopper   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Redbird1   Wed Sep 22 2004 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Bloodstar   Wed Sep 22 2004 02:46 PM
. * * Newbie LanceW   Wed Sep 22 2004 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... 8675309   Wed Sep 22 2004 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... 8675309   Wed Sep 22 2004 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... scottsvb   Wed Sep 22 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 22 2004 02:07 PM
. * * 94L SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 22 2004 01:41 PM
. * * Re: 94L 8675309   Wed Sep 22 2004 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Redbird1   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Ricreig   Wed Sep 22 2004 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Redbird1   Wed Sep 22 2004 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... scottsvb   Wed Sep 22 2004 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... EriktheFled   Wed Sep 22 2004 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Frank P   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:41 AM
. * * Re: Tracking 5 systems... Redbird1   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:46 AM
. * * Re: 94L ticka1   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:03 AM
. * * ticka1 SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:09 AM
. * * TX bound Shawn?? Frank P   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:01 AM
. * * Re: 94L Rabbit   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:00 AM
. * * Re: T-numbers on 94L ticka1   Wed Sep 22 2004 10:54 AM
. * * Re: T-numbers on 94L LI Phil   Wed Sep 22 2004 10:55 AM
. * * Re: T-numbers on 94L Redbird1   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:19 AM
. * * 94L SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 22 2004 11:22 AM
. * * Re: T-numbers on 94L Rabbit   Wed Sep 22 2004 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne Watch LoisCane   Wed Sep 22 2004 09:43 AM

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