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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Jeanne Forecast
      Thu Sep 23 2004 02:41 PM

First off you cant go by the exact points that the NHC has listed as their track. For example many have noticed the 25.6N for the next 36 hours but we know most of the time storms will wobble along the axis. If I was the NHC I would of gone 25.8 then 25.9 then keep it there a extra 6 hrs then move it up again another.1 or .2 even by 48hrs. So what Im saying it will be near 26.2N in 48hrs from now. Thing is over the last 12 hrs the mid level flow around the strong ridge still way off to the NW was losing its reach on Jeanne. Now with a light steering flow she wobbled to the wnw over the last few hours. She will though start to feel the ridge more as it moves southeast from Penns- the midatlantic states over the next 24hrs so this will change the current 280-285dg track back to a almost due west track of 270-275dg. Some of the models show this on the mid level flow pattern.
She will run over cooler ssts this afternoon halting any intensification but later this evening into tonight she should start to strengthn slightly with the night time durational affects. It could be close to a Cat 3 by morning. After rolling thru the bahamas and very close to Nassau, By late Friday night into the morning Sat she should lose the due west course but its unsure of it will be truley WNW at 295dg or more 280-285 during the day Saturday. Anyways, none the less, a moderate strengthning affect should happen when she encounters the warm gulf stream waters. These waters were only partially affected by frances plus frances was a few weeks ago so the waters had time to recover up to 28-29c. Shear will begin though and could hamper any great intensification before landfall. Landfall is tough to pinpoint due to it being 66hrs out from now and the shape of the florida coastline. Right now as hard as it is Im going to say it will make landfall around 115-125mph from Pompano beach-Jupiter inlet. This is my 50mile swath for 3 days out or so. It could reach Lake Ockechobee or NE part causing extreme conditions near south bay, belle glade, and even Cleweston area around the lake. Jeanne should slowly weaken and head NW and even NNW into southern Polk county thru there on Sunday afternoon (abouts) to west of Orlando. It could then move N or even NNE coming up close to Jacksonville. Anyways really after it gets to Lake Ockechobee really all bets are off right now as that is just after 72 hrs out. IM not 100% sure it wont just go WNW to Sarasota then NW near Clearwater and up to the Panhandle or by the lake go NNW between Orlando and the Cape and exiting just north of Daytona beach by late sunday night. So after the lake its still up in the air untill tomorrow. Anyways I gave my landfall spot. The ridge should hold strong into Saturday. Jeanne should gradually pick up some forward speed over the next 6-12 hrs and continue and turn more due west also in that time period. Hurricane watches should be posted I would feel as early as 11pm tonight to give alittle more time for the high population areas along the florida east coast.Oh btw landfall times around between 10pm saturday night and 4am sunday morning,,that could be revised.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Steering Currents MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 23 2004 02:41 PM
. * * Sunday & Monday SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday COgal   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday scottsvb   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday Steve hirschb.   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday scottsvb   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:19 PM
. * * Who to blame? Kent   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Who to blame? danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Who to blame? AgentB   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:41 PM
. * * What AgentB said... LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:45 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:59 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... AgentB   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:13 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:32 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... MO Stormspotter   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... Thunder   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:59 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... from Gainesville   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:02 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:08 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:04 PM
. * * Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent Kent   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent Dawn   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent Liz C   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent Kimberley Clark   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent Florida Nurse   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:35 PM
. * * Not Anxious Anymore about Storms Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent sthorne   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent Kent   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent sthorne   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:37 PM
. * * Ditch Witch Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Ditch Witch Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Ditch Witch Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Ditch Witch Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:08 PM
. * * Jeanne Justin in Miami   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne leetdan   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Justin in Miami   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne jlauderdal   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:33 PM
. * * Is Jeanne Growing? Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Is Jeanne Growing? Sadie   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Is Jeanne Growing? danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Is Jeanne Growing? AgentB   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Is Jeanne Growing? AdmittedHacker   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:50 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... Thunder   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:03 PM
. * * Re:Noon visible shots danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:07 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... AgentB   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday Steve hirschb.   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:23 PM
. * * Ivan SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Liz L.   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Steve   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Kal   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents AgentB   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents AdmittedHacker   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents cocoa Beach   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents schmoo   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents AdmittedHacker   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Vladimirr   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents schmoo   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents jlauderdal   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents AdmittedHacker   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents lawgator   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Kdubs   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Rasvar   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents flbeachbumz   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:27 PM
. * * Weak attempt at Ivan Humor Bloodstar   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Weak attempt at Ivan Humor Kimberley Clark   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Weak attempt at Ivan Humor flbeachbumz   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Kal   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:30 PM
. * * 2 Landfalls in Florida? Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re: 2 Landfalls in Florida? Kal   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:11 PM
. * * Link Ed in Va   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:12 PM
. * * Jeanne Forecast scottsvb   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Forecast WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Forecast LONNY307   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:40 PM
. * * Vortex Data Recon Kdubs   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Data Recon leetdan   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Data Recon davet   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Data Recon Vladimirr   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Data Recon SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:34 PM
. * * SSD still hasLisa and 93L Bloodstar   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Data Recon Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Forecast Fletch   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Link palmetto   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents clyde w.   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents CarolinaGurl   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Ormond Suzie   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents clyde w.   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Ormond Suzie   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Frank P   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents andy1tom   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents LanceW   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents LanceW   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Katie   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Rasvar   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents rhendryx   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents rhendryx   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Rabbit   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Kdubs   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:41 PM
. * * New fly in the ointment??? WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:46 PM
. * * where is discussion lois   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:53 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion leetdan   Thu Sep 23 2004 05:03 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion Heather   Thu Sep 23 2004 05:07 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 23 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Ivan Allison   Thu Sep 23 2004 06:10 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:57 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion leetdan   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion Staggy   Thu Sep 23 2004 05:03 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion Rabbit   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:58 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Nothing but wonderful news WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 23 2004 05:10 PM
. * * 5 Jeanne Ed in Va   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents FireAng   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:14 PM
. * * Floater Images lawgator   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents scottsvb   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents scottsvb   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne gailmm   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne StormKrone   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:09 PM
. * * Ivan SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Rasvar   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Fletch   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents tartan   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents ABWATCHER   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents clyde w.   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:09 PM
. * * JB LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:55 AM
. * * Re: JB Steve   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:58 AM
. * * Re: JB FlaRebel   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents cmdebbie   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents leo   Thu Sep 23 2004 09:18 PM
. * * Climatology Says.... WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Climatology Says.... Rasvar   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Climatology Out the window this year LoisCane   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Climatology Out the window this year Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:02 PM
. * * well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some lois   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:09 PM
. * * Re: well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:50 PM
. * * Re: well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some scottsvb   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:16 PM
. * * ps lois   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Kdubs   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents leetdan   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:50 AM
. * * when does next nogaps come out, does anyone know n/t lois   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:25 AM
. * * Ugh LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Ugh jth   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Ugh leo   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Ugh Kdubs   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:51 AM
. * * hard time with Jeanne Frank P   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:47 AM
. * * Re: when does next nogaps come out, does anyone know n/t Tally   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:36 AM
. * * Re: when does next nogaps come out, does anyone know n/t AdmittedHacker   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Re: when does next nogaps come out, does anyone know n/t Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:31 AM
. * * Re: when does next nogaps come out, does anyone know n/t leetdan   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:35 AM

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