You can see the dry air (blue area) pushing south as the day progresses. This is representative of the high-pressure ridge. If the ridge stopped dead in its tracks, then the hurricane would steer more north than the forecast path. However, as it is currently forecast, it should push south enough for a Florida landfall.
How far south the ridge pushes, and how well it sticks together, will determine how far north or south this thing goes. Which was the same case with Frances.
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