Ok lets get into it!!!!!!! Right now Im going to talk about the models,,then Ill post more in a hour or so on ideas then Ill take any questions you all have.
New model runs coming in. ETA OZ run is inland near Boyton Beach across to Ft Myers. Landfall by midnight. GFS OZ is in, landfall near Pt.St Lucie and to Arcadia then NW between LakeLand and Tampa,,,,,( this is about 50-75 miles more west then the 18z run and has the new data into the model. It now agrees with the Nogaps. Speaking of the Nogaps It goes inland near Jupiter then near the Lake then across to near Sarasota and NNW just offshore Clearwater and threatning the Panhandle.. This has been the most consistant model over the last 2 days from run to run and the GFS has been bending to this and now agrees. Jeanne is moving more closer to 14mph. Even though it was posted at 74.9 its already near 75.5 as of 1230am eastern,, at this pace she should be near 26.6 and 75.8w at 2am adv,,but i could be off by a tad. If this continues and its expected,,then landfall might happen just before midnight if any increase in speed to near 17mph. Its possible too. CMC also makes landfall near Pt .St Lucie to Lakeland to just north of Clearwater (New Port Richie and moving NW-NNW. I havent seen the Ukmet yet or the GFDL. I would suspect a more westward shift again in the track with landfall closer to my forecast and then Nw to Lakeland and come up to near Ocala by Sunday evening. Winds at landfall I still feel will be near 120mph with gusts close to 140. This will be stronger then Frances at landfall. Extreme damage and mass power outages will affect a wide area throughout the state in the area of the path. Strong squall lines will start to affect the east coast of florida by mid morning and work inland during the afternoon. Ill have more to come latter on my 24 hour landfall and its pretty close to what I gave 3 days ago and even 7-8 days ago last weekend.
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